Between April and May 2026, around 1.77 million people in Burundi (14 percent of the analysed population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including roughly 1.5 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 220,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The Imbo Plain and the Northern Depressions were the worst-affected zones, each with about 20 percent of their population in Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse)

Food security is expected to improve through the June–September 2026 projection period, as a result of the anticipated 2026B harvest, replenished household stocks, and better market supply. The number of people in Phase 3 or above is projected to fall to about 1.02 million people, representing a reduction of roughly 750,000 people.

The most affected populations were poor and very poor households, alongside returnees from Tanzania, refugees, and internally displaced people, whose limited access to land and productive assets left them highly exposed.

However, anticipated improvements are seasonal, and mask persistent structural vulnerabilities—high food prices, high transport costs, limited access to agricultural inputs, and pressure from population movements—that continue to threaten the expected gains.

• Strengthen assistance for the most affected populations: Prioritise households in IPC Phase 3 and 4 in the Imbo Plain, the Northern Depressions and the Eastern Depressions, as well as returnees, refugees and internally displaced persons. Interventions should aim to protect food consumption, prevent the erosion of livelihoods and reduce immediate food gaps. In the areas along the shore of Lake Tanganyika that are particularly exposed to flood and landslide risks, anticipatory actions should be prepared ahead of the Super El Niño event—seasonal forecasts for which indicate an increased risk of excessive rainfall in Burundi—in order to limit livelihood losses and the expected impacts on food security.
• Provide sustained support to agricultural livelihoods: Increase smallholder producers' access to fertilisers, seeds and other agricultural inputs in order to improve productivity and incomes. Particular attention should be given to vulnerable households affected by water deficits, flooding or poor agricultural performance, in order to strengthen their resilience to future shocks.
• Strengthen resilience and reintegration mechanisms: Develop targeted actions for returnees, refugees, internally displaced persons and host communities in order to improve access to productive resources, economic opportunities and basic services. These measures will help reduce pressure on host areas and limit prolonged dependence on humanitarian food assistance.
• Strengthen food security and market monitoring: Continue regular monitoring of food prices, the cost of the minimum food basket, food availability, population movements and key food security indicators. Regular updating of FSMS, mVAM and IPC analyses is recommended in order to rapidly detect any deterioration in the situation and to guide response decisions.
• Improve information systems and data quality: Strengthen the collection and analysis of data on food consumption, livelihoods, population movements, markets and the nutrition situation, in particular through the regular implementation of SMART surveys. Timely release of the results of the modular agricultural surveys from the 2024 RGPHAE would help improve the quality of future IPC analyses.
• Monitor key risk factors: Closely monitor developments in food prices, transport costs, fuel availability, the early effects of El Niño, agro-climatic conditions, the fertiliser supply process, the evolution of the 2026 conflict in the Middle East and its potential effects on trade, as well as population movements. Any significant deterioration in these factors could call into question the projection assumptions and require an update of the IPC analysis.