The current IPC analysis has counted 1.76 million people (18% of the Burundian population) in the humanitarian phase (IPC Phases 3 and 4). This reflects a slight improvement compared to the same period last year, with 3% of the population in Phase 4 in 2017, compared to 5% in 2016.

The Imbo plain is the most affected and most vulnerable to food insecurity with 35% of the population in a food crisis and 4% in the emergency phase (IPC Phase 4) in 2017B against 14% and 6% respectively in 2016B.

The previous poor crop season left significant sequelae that even the good harvests of the 2017B season could not fully compensate, leading to a small increase in food security. The socio-economic crisis, which has become more pronounced since 2015, is increasingly affecting the livelihoods of households. Loss of economic opportunities, greater dependence on the market as prices continue to rise and erosion of purchasing power, make households' access to food ever more difficult.

The projected analysis estimates that the number of people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) during the lean period (October to December) will amount to 27% of the country's population. The zones of the Congo Nile ridge, the northern and eastern depressions and the dry eastern plateaus are in danger of falling back into phase 3, just like the Imbo plain.

The limited access to marshes and inputs, the persistence of plant diseases and pests (cassava mosaic, banana BXW, autumn corn caterpillar) as well as pressure from returnees limit the contribution of the 2017C season to safety households whose food stocks from the 2017 season crops are depleted with September, household incomes remain low to feed on local markets, which are themselves poorly supplied due to the lack of foreign exchange and the depreciation of the Burundi Franc.

The results of the analysis of the current and projected situation pose a great challenge to decision-makers in terms of programming and coordinated response, not only to meet the need to save lives, but also to stabilize and strengthen the resilience of the affected population. The main recommendations can be summarized as follows:

• Provide humanitarian assistance to 293,900 people in the emergency phase (IPC Phase 4), in the form of food distribution and / or monetary transfer.
• Continue and strengthen joint early recovery and resilience actions for the population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) in the form of small livestock recapitalization, access to quality agricultural inputs, cash and / or food for work for rehabilitation of catchment areas and other socio-economic infrastructure, as well as the diversification of income-generating activities so that it does not fall into phase 4 at the next shock but rather progress towards phase 2.
• Strengthen and diversify reliable and consensual data collection and analysis systems, particularly for nutrition, in order to have a variety and critical mass of data to support the analysis.
• Consider an integrated response analysis that would take into account a multidimensional approach based on complementary activities planning at very short, medium and long term.
• Sustainably integrate the population calculation and the analysis of the projected situation in the next analyses of food insecurity. As well as initiating an annual IPC nutrition analysis.