Approximately 1.17 million people (10 percent of the population analysed) in Burundi experienced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity between August and September 2025. The situation was driven by the combined impact of current macroeconomic conditions, climatic shocks, conflicts in cross-border areas, inflation, rising food and fuel prices, as well as currency depreciation and significant reductions in humanitarian assistance. The urban poor and low-income households in rural areas were most affected.

The situation is expected to deteriorate in the first projection period (October to December 2025), with approximately 15 percent of the population (1.8 million people) likely to experience Phase 3—an increase of 630,000 people compared to the current period. This deterioration in the food situation is projected due to the decrease or depletion of household food reserves, reduced livelihood opportunities, the expected further reduction in humanitarian food assistance, and the intensification of the macroeconomic crisis. Food prices are likely to reach high levels on the markets.

Regarding the second projected period from January to March 2026, a slight improvement in the food situation is expected due to the availability of harvests for the 2026A season. Thus, the Eastern Depression Zone will move from IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). During this period, approximately 1.14 million people (representing 9 percent of the total population analysed) will face Phase 3, representing a reduction of 30,000 people compared to the current period. 

Strengthen the targeted humanitarian response

• Prioritise EMCs with high populations in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis): Eastern Lowlands, Imbo Plain, Northern Lowlands.
• Intensify food assistance in areas with high concentrations of refugees and internally displaced persons.
• Prepare an early response for areas at risk of shifting to Phase 3 during the lean season (October-December 2025).

Support the resilience of vulnerable households

• Support sustainable livelihoods: agriculture, livestock, and home gardens.
• Strengthen access to agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizers) for poor households for the 2026A season.
• Support income-generating activities, particularly in areas affected by climate and economic shocks.

Monitor and manage climate and economic risks

• Establish an early warning system for floods (Lake Tanganyika) and localized droughts.
• Monitor food and fuel prices to anticipate impacts on food access.
• Coordinate with local authorities to manage the influx of displaced and refugee populations.

Strengthen nutritional security

• Promote dietary diversity and the consumption of micronutrient-rich foods.
• Intensify nutrition awareness campaigns in areas with low dietary diversity.
• Support community health services to prevent malnutrition.

Improve coordination and targeting for all forms of assistance

• Maintain or strengthen the SA situation monitoring system through data collection and analysis (FSMS, ENAB, mVAM, SIP, etc.).
• Target interventions based on the results of IPC analysis and ad hoc multisectoral assessments. Mobilizing resources to maintain and expand interventions in a context of humanitarian funding