Somalia continues to face a volatile and complex food crisis, with the risk of Famine identified for the second consecutive IPC analysis. Nearly 5.1 million people are facing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) from July–September 2026, including close to 1.4 million people are facing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Previous droughts, erratic rainfall, insecurity, high food prices and expected El Niño impacts continue to drive high levels of need, while declining humanitarian funding is reducing response capacity.  

Between October–December 2026, the population in Phase 3 or above is expected to increase to 5.4 million people, driven largely by El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole-related flooding. This includes 1.5 million people likely to be in Phase 4 and nearly 26,000 Baidoa internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Bay Region likely to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), facing starvation and livelihood collapse. Under a plausible worst‑case scenario of more severe flooding and displacement, Baidoa IDPs in southern Somalia face a risk of Famine in late 2026. 

• Immediately scale up targeted humanitarian assistance—including food, nutrition, health, livelihoods and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)—for vulnerable populations in hotspot areas, including those facing a risk of Famine. 
• Implement early preparedness and anticipatory action measures in high-risk flood-prone areas to mitigate the impacts of forecasted severe flooding from El Niño. 
• Fund and conduct follow-up assessments and risk monitoring, especially for priority Baidoa IDPs, Beletweyne IDPs and populations in other hotspot areas.