According to the seasonal assessment by FSNAU and FEWS NET, Somalia will face large-scale food insecurity between February and June 2016 as a result of poor rainfall and drought conditions in several areas, trade disruption, a combination of protracted and new population displacement, all of which is exacerbated by chronic poverty. Acute malnutrition remains high in many parts of the country.
The results indicate that 931,000 people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 22,000 more people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) across Somalia through June 2016. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) represent 68 percent of the total number of people in Crisis and Emergency, rural populations (26 percent) and urban populations (6 percent). Approximately 3.7 million additional people across the country are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through mid-‐2016.
In total, the assessment reports that nearly 4.7 million people or 38 percent of the total population of Somalia are acutely food insecure and will be in need of humanitarian assistance February and June 2016.
Population Estimates for January 2016
Population Estimates for February - June 2016 Projection
Urgent nutrition and health support for the acutely malnourished is needed now and through mid-2016. However, this is not enough for populations experiencing persistently high levels of acute malnutrition. They need additional multifaceted interventions aimed at addressing the underlying causes and contributing factors.
Urgent lifesaving humanitarian assistance and livelihood support is required for populations in Emergency and Crisis (IPC Phases 4 and 3) through June 2016. Populations experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity remain highly vulnerable to shocks that could push them back to Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phases 3 or 4). They should be supported in order to protect their livelihoods and boost their resilience to shocks.
The assessment involved 39 separate nutrition surveys conducted from October to December 2016 by FSNAU and partners across Somalia. Results from these surveys indicate that an estimated 304,700 children under the age of five were acutely malnourished at the time of the survey. This includes 58,300 children under the age of five that are severely malnourished and face increased risk of morbidity and death. Despite changes in seasonal food security and livelihood outcomes and continued humanitarian interventions, Critical rates of acute malnutrition (i.e. 15% or more Global Acute Malnutrition – GAM) persist among several population groups. This shows the protracted nature of the nutrition crisis among these groups. Almost all of the past seven seasonal assessments (conducted twice a year) have reported Critical GAM rates amongst: Bari Urban, Garowe IDPs, Galkayo IDPs, Mataban District, Beletweyne District, Bay Agropastoral, Dollow IDPs, North Gedo Pastoral and North Gedo Riverine.