The erratic rainfall between May and June 2024 led to a reduction in crop production in agropastoral livelihoods. While the Gu rains improved pasture and water availability in pastoral livelihoods, localized floods affected populations in riverine and adjacent urban areas in Hiraan, Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle, forcing parts of the population to be displaced. Conflict and insecurity across regions also led to population displacement and disrupted agricultural activities and market access. As a consequence, approximately 3.6 million Somalis (19 percent of the population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or worse (Crisis or Emergency) between July and September 2024. Of these, 2.9 million people (15 percent of the population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis), and around 724,000 people (4 percent of the population) are experiencing worse conditions in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency).

In comparison to the same period last year, when approximately 3.7 million people were classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 or worse due to protracted drought, the current figure represents a slight (4 percent) reduction in the number of food-insecure people. This is attributed to better rainfall over the past two seasons, which had a positive impact on livelihoods and continued humanitarian assistance, albeit at a reduced level.

• Introduce Risk Transfer Mechanisms, Anticipatory/Early Action: Provide timely multi-sectoral support to vulnerable communities in areas affected by drought and floods to mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change and the La Niña phenomenon.

• Continue Lifesaving Humanitarian Response: Urgent funding is required for multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance for Food Security, Nutrition, Health, and WASH programmes.

• Social Protection Programmes: Social safety nets and human capital development programmes in both urban and rural areas should address predictable needs. Scale up shock-responsive social protection programs targeting the most vulnerable and at-risk households.

• Improved Efficiencies in Humanitarian Assistance: Improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance to ensure it reaches those most in need, using Vulnerability-Based Targeting (VBT) to prioritize the most vulnerable geographical areas, including marginalized communities and inaccessible locations. Close collaboration between humanitarian and development actors (HDP Nexus approach) is essential to support diverse and layered livelihood-based interventions that address the underlying causes of acute food insecurity and malnutrition.

• Durable and Sustainable Solutions: Establish a systematic approach to address urgent humanitarian needs followed by investments in early recovery and resilience building. Initiatives under resilience building should include a package of interventions such as strengthening early warning systems, implementing anticipatory measures, and investing in climate-resilient agriculture and food systems to better equip households to manage risks and shocks. Additionally, strategies must be developed to address food insecurity and malnutrition stemming from insecurity, conflict, and long-term population displacement.