Significant efforts in the scale-up of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance, supported by slightly more favourable than previously foreseen rainfall performance, have contributed to a moderate improvement in food security and nutrition outcomes. However, the situation remains at critical levels.

The latest analysis shows that between January to March 2023, nearly 5 million people are still experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including close to 1.4 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 96,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition persist in most parts of the country. Between January and December 2023, it is estimated that approximately 1.8 million children will be acutely malnourished, including nearly 478,000 children who are likely to be severely malnourished.  

Between April and June 2023, about 6.5 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), of which 1.9 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). A highly concerning number of people (223,000), more than double that of the current period, is expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the most affected areas across Somalia through mid-2023. 

Deteriorating food security and acute malnutrition conditions are expected in the projected period due to the impacts of five consecutive seasons of below-average to poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from April to June 2023, and high food prices, exacerbated by conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Despite the coordinated efforts to sustain humanitarian assistance, in the projected period, the confirmed funding levels for humanitarian food assistance in particular remain inadequate to avert deteriorating conditions for the most vulnerable populations, leading to a 1.5 million people increase in the population in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above). While humanitarian food assistance has been scaled up since July 2022, and funding is currently sufficient to reach, on average, 6.2 million people per month throughout March, between April-June 2023, the confirmed funding would only be sufficient to assist around 2.7 million people – about half the current beneficiaries. 

Urgent lifesaving humanitarian response

Urgent and timely scaling up of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance (in-kind food, cash/voucher transfers, nutrition, WASH, and health-related) is required through at least June 2023 and likely through late 2023 to prevent Famine (IPC Phase 5) – defined by extreme levels of food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality, including starvation – in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay Region, among IDP populations in Mogadishu and the Risk of Famine in the seven other areas.

Livelihood support

Considering upcoming harsher-than-normal drought conditions and the significantly diminished resilience, the high vulnerability to shocks and the protected nature of food insecurity and malnutrition, close collaboration between humanitarian and development programmes is needed to tackle the underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition and enhance resilience.

Promote de-escalation of violence and facilitate response

The parties to the conflict in Somalia must allow and facilitate rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief for civilians, especially those most in need, which is impartial and conducted without any adverse distinction, subject to their right of control.