In late March, the IPC Technical Working Group in Somalia conducted an update of their analysis released in February 2025. This update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict.

There were 21 areas analysed in the acute food insecurity projection update based on changes to humanitarian assistance and other aggravating factors such as conflict and drought-related displacement. The reprioritisation of humanitarian food and cash assistance led to a massive reduction in some areas and an increase in others, such as Mudug IDPs (Galdogob, Hobyo and Jariiban) or Galgaduud urban (Dhuusamareeb).

For the 21 areas, 36 percent of the population is projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) with 9 percent in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and 28 percent in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This is compared to 6 percent and 22 percent, respectively, that were projected in the January 2025 analysis. 

The revised number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and June 2025 is 713,000 people compared to 553,000 people estimated in the January 2025 analysis, or a net increase of nearly 160,000 people (29 percent). 

With nearly 1 in 4 Somalis in need of urgent of assistance, the humanitarian situation in Somalia remains critical. Urgent mobilisation of resources is required to address the needs of the most vulnerable. Specific recommended actions are highlighted below.

• Sustained Lifesaving and Life-sustaining Assistance: Urgent funding required to maintain multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance in Food Security, Nutrition, Health, and WASH programmes. These interventions are essential to prevent further deterioration among the most vulnerable populations.
• Urgent Advocacy and Resource Mobilisation: Strengthen high-level advocacy and funding efforts to ensure adequate resources for populations classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 and above.
• Risk-Based Programming: Enhance anticipatory action (AA), preparedness, and early response to help vulnerable communities adapt to climate change impacts and recurrent shocks, including droughts and floods.
• Scale Up Integrated Programmes: Expand multi-sectoral collaboration across Food Security, Nutrition, Health, and WASH to break the cycle of food and nutrition insecurity, prioritising communities in IPC Phase 3 or above.
• Enhance Humanitarian Assistance Efficiency: Improve targeting mechanisms through Vulnerability-Based Targeting (VBT) and registration systems to prioritise marginalised and hard-to-reach populations, Accountability to Affected population (AAP) and strengthen prevention of aid diversion.
• Bridge Humanitarian and Development Efforts: Strengthen the link between emergency aid and long-term development to implement livelihood-based interventions, address root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition, and promote resilience.
• Expand Social Protection Programmes: Scale up shock-responsive social protection and human capital development initiatives in urban and rural areas to support the most vulnerable households.
• Rationalise health and nutrition services: To ensure equitable access, optimise resource allocation, enhance efficiency and quality of health and nutrition service delivery.
• Increase surveillance of malnutrition and disease burden and outbreaks: Strengthen health and nutrition surveillance systems at the community level.
• Enhance Risk Monitoring and Assessment: Ensure adequate funding for the close monitoring of risk factors related to food security and nutrition, and related seasonal assessments to support the targeting and prioritization of humanitarian assistance.