Despite the positive impact of the 2023 Gu rains and sustained humanitarian assistance, the levels of acute food insecurity are projected to remain high. Between October to December 2023, 4.3 million people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. This includes over 1 million people who will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The increase in the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes from 3.7 million between August to September 2023 to 4.3 million between October to December 2023 is due to a combination of factors, including the adverse impacts of El-Nino related heavy rains and flooding and anticipated decline in the level of humanitarian assistance in the coming months because of funding constraints. 

While food security outcomes in several pastoral livelihoods will improve: Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing of central regions; Guban Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral of northwest, northeast and central; Southern Inland Pastoral of Middle Juba and Lower Juba, Northern Inland Pastoral of northwest and northeast; East Golis Pastoral of northwest and northeast; Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing of northeast and Middle Shabelle will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) across Somalia is currently estimated at 3.6 million (OCHA). In the context of reduced humanitarian assistance most of the main IDP settlements analysed will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Anticipatory/ Early Action: Provide timely multi-sectoral support to vulnerable communities in riverine areas to mitigate the potential adverse impact of El Niño-related flooding during the Oct-Dec Deyr rainy season.

Lifesaving Humanitarian Response: Urgent funding is required for multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance for Food Security, Nutrition, Health, and WASH programmes. Treatment for children, pregnant and breastfeeding women suffering from acute malnutrition.

Livelihood Support: Livelihoods support is required for populations that are classified in Stressed or worse (IPC Phase 2 or above).

Expand Access to Health Services: Strengthen the access to preventative services, with a focus on immunization, micronutrient supplementation, treatment of childhood diseases, and access to clean water and hygiene services.

Social Protection Programmes: Expand social protection programmes in both urban and rural areas to address predictable needs. Scale-up social protection programs targeting the most vulnerable and at-risk households.

Improved Humanitarian Assistance: Improved targeting of humanitarian assistance to ensure assistance is reaching the people most in need, including marginalized communities and inaccessible locations. There is also a need for an enhanced area-based integrated strategy that combines sectoral interventions to improve humanitarian outcomes and maximize impact. Close collaboration between humanitarian and development actors (HDP Nexus approach) is needed to support diverse and layered livelihood-based interventions that tackle the underlying causes of acute food insecurity and malnutrition.

Durable Solutions: Somalia needs a balanced two-pronged approach that combines both addressing immediate humanitarian needs and investment in early recovery and resilience programming. Strengthen early warning and anticipatory actions and investment in climate-resilient agriculture and food systems to enhance households’ capacity to mitigate risks and shocks. Concerted efforts must be exerted to address insecurity, conflict, and protracted population displacement.