Acute malnutrition is already at Critical levels in many areas of central and southern Somalia, and the number of acutely malnourished children being admitted to treatment centers is rapidly increasing, with two to four-fold increases reported in some districts.

Based on the results from 11 integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted between late April and early May 2022, as of May 2022, an estimated 1.5 million children under the age of five years (total acute malnutrition burden), representing 45 percent of the total population of children, face acute malnutrition through the end of the year, including 386,400 who are likely to be severely malnourished. These figures are likely to increase as the nutrition situation deteriorates further in the affected areas.

Worsening food security conditions and limited access to clean water have led to outbreaks of acute watery diarrhea (AWD) in many areas. Coupled with an increase in measles cases, disease incidence is contributing to rising levels of acute malnutrition, reflected in the rising number of moderately and severely malnourished children admitted to treatment centers.

Acute malnutrition case admissions among children under age five rose by over 40 percent in January-April 2022 compared to the same period of last year. Results from 11 follow up integrated surveys conducted in late April/early May indicate worsening levels of acute malnutrition, with significant and rapid deterioration observed in Galkacyo IDPs, Beletweyne IDP/urban, Bay Agropastoral, and North Gedo Riverine livelihoods. Levels of mortality (both the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the Under-Five Death Rate (U5DR) have increased sharply among Bay Agropastoral, Baidoa IDPs, Mogadishu IDPs, and Kismayo IDPs.

The most concerning increase is in Bay Agropastoral (Burhakaba and Baidoa districts), where the CDR has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold. The U5DR has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral (Baidoa district).

• Urgent and timely scaling up of integrated humanitarian assistance is required to prevent extreme food insecurity and acute malnutrition, including starvation and excess mortality, in areas facing an increased Risk of Famine through at least September 2022.
• In particular, malnutrition and mortality outcomes in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts in Bay region already point to an extremely concerning situation as of May 2022. While only one of the criteria of Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been met in Baidoa district as of May, there is increasing concern that further deterioration in food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality may lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5) in these two districts if humanitarian assistance is not scaled up urgently in these areas.
• A new round of data collection will be undertaken in June to further assess the likelihood of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay Region. Moreover, available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. Therefore, humanitarian needs are expected to worsen and remain high nationally well into 2023.