Despite improvements, there are pressing humanitarian needs in Somalia according to findings from the post-Gu seasonal assessment conducted across Somalia in June and July 2018. Assessment results indicate food security has continued to improve due to average to above average rainfall between April and June that contributed to seasonal improvements to food and income sources and market conditions and the positive impacts of sustained and large-scale humanitarian assistance. Forecast average to above average Deyr (October-December 2018) rains, off-season harvest and favorable market conditions are expected to contribute to further improvements in the overall foods security condition between now and December 2018.

In the absence of humanitarian assistance, food security outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Northern Inland Pastoral of Sool and Sanaag regions. In summary, over 1.5 million people will face Crisis or worse (IPC Phases 3 or higher) between now and December 2018 which represents a significant improvement in the overall food security situation in Somalia compared to the 2.7 million people projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse between February and June 2018. Through December 2018, an additional 3.1 million people are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), which brings the total number of people facing acute food insecurity across Somalia to 4.6 million.

Most of the 13 main IDP settlements are classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and the end of 2018. Declining food prices and increased employment opportunities have improved food security situation in most urban areas, including those that have experienced trade disruptions due to insecurity. However, some urban areas in the north and southern Somalia affected by depreciation of the local currency and flooding are classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Number of Acutely Food Insecure People (August-December 2018)

Populations groups classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse require interventions aimed at reducing food consumption gaps, reducing acute malnutrition, saving lives and protecting and saving livelihoods.

Results from 30 separate nutrition surveys conducted by FSNAU and partners between June and July 2018 indicate that the overall nutrition situation in Somalia has continued to improve due to a combination of improved food security conditions, reduced outbreak of diseases and sustained humanitarian interventions. However, high level of acute malnutrition tends to persist in several population groups due to underlying/structural causes.

The overall, level of acute malnutrition at national level has improved to Serious (5-9.9% Global Acute Malnutrition-GAM) in the current 2018 Gu 2018 (median GAM of 14.0%) from Critical in 2017 Gu (median GAM of 17.4%). There are no improvement in the overall current acute malnutrition prevalence compared to 2017/18 Deyr (median GAM of 13.8%). GAM prevalence is Critical (15-29.9%) in 12 out of 33 populations surveyed. Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) prevalence is Critical (≥4-5.6) only among Mogadishu Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) settlement and in Guban pastoral livelihood. Crude Death Rate (CDR) is Critical (1 to <2/10 000/day) in 3 out of 33 population groups surveyed. Morbidity rates remain high (>20 %) in many parts of the country.

Accordingly, between August and December 2018 an estimated 294 200 children will likely face acute malnutrition, including 55 200 who are likely to be severely malnourished (total acute malnutrition burden).

To view the IPC Acute Malnutrition Map, please click here.