In Kenya’s arid and semiarid lands (ASALs), around 2.7 million people are experiencing IPC  Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) acute food insecurity, with 348,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), between July and October 2026. This marks a 55 percent increase from the previous analysis and exceeds earlier projections. The deterioration reflects erratic rainfall, slow livelihood recovery, persistent vulnerabilities, and insufficient humanitarian food security assistance (HFSA).   

While needs still remain high among refugees, with about 351,000 people facing IPC Phase 3 or above during the current period, conditions have improved markedly since February 2026, driven largely by increased HFSA. 

Food security is expected to improve modestly in the ASALs during the projection period from November 2026 to January 2027 as the short rains strengthen, with around 2.1 million people projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above. However, conditions are expected to worsen among the refugee population due to El Niño-related flooding, with approximately 430,000 people projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above.  

• Procurement of commodities for management of acute malnutrition, to ensure consistency of supplies for treatment sustainability.
• Sustain disease surveillance and response to outbreaks.
• Heightened nutrition surveillance, situation monitoring and coordination.
• Nutrition response planning and enhance resource mobilisation.
• Hotspot mapping and prioritisation of outreach sites.
• Scale-up of integrated health and nutrition outreaches and mass screening.
• Invest in Social and Behaviour Change Communication (SBCC) strategies to improve infant and young child feeding (IYCF), maternal nutrition and WASH practices.
• Initiate and scale-up community-based approaches to address poor dietary intake among children 6 to 23 months.
• Advocate for counties to finance data and surveillance activities to allow for comprehensive nutrition situation analysis.
• Implement multisectoral responses and interventions to address immediate needs with complementary actions to build resilience of communities.
• Enhance community-based programs to improve coverage or early detection and treatment of acute malnutrition.