How severe, how many and when: In July 2019, estimated 2.6 Million people (19% of the population in ASAL) are classified in IPC phase 3 and/or worse acute food insecurity. Comparing to 2018 same period, around 700,000 people were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The deterioration and severity of food insecurity was mainly attributed to performance of the seasonal rainfall. In the projection period of August to October 2019, the population in crisis and above is expected to increase from 2.6 million people to about 3.1 million people, while the population in Emergency possibly will increase from 298,000 people to 357,000 people. 

Where and who: In July 2019, while almost all the counties have populations in either Crisis or Emergency, majority of these populations are in Turkana, Mandera, Baringo Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Tana river in the predominant pastoral livelihoods and Kitui, Makueni, Kilifi, Meru North in the marginal agricultural and agro pastoral livelihoods. During the projection period of August to October 2019, the geographic distribution for these numbers are in Turkana, Mandera, Baringo Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Tana river in the predominant pastoral livelihoods and Kitui, Makueni, Kilifi, Meru North in the marginal agricultural and agro pastoral livelihoods, with significant numbers are expected in Isiolo, Tharaka and Samburu.

Why: The main driver of food insecurity was the poor long rains season which was a second consecutive season. Poor rainfall coupled with high land surface temperatures in many areas led to poor crop and livestock production and rapid deterioration of rangeland resources. The scarcity of rangeland resources triggered an earlier-than-normal livestock migration into dry season grazing areas and also into atypical grazing areas such as game parks and reserves, which resulted in resource-based conflicts. These led to minor livestock losses, displacement and death. There was also an outbreak of human diseases among them an outbreak of Kalazaar disease in the northern pastoral areas as well as cholera. Livestock diseases were also prevalent in both the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas were Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Contagious Caprine Pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP), Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) and Heart Water.

Response Priorities

Food Security

• Food and safety nets to an estimated 2.6 million food insecure people in need of assistance with interventions focused on reducing malnutrition and increasing resilience of the affected communities.
• Supplementary feeding for children 6 to 59 months and pregnant and lactating women in the most affected counties.
• Provision of farm inputs, support to livestock disease control, provision of livestock feeds, water infrastructure maintenance, repair and spare parts for boreholes, provision of school feeding meals. 
• Crop and livestock insurance schemes to reduce climate related risks to vulnerable populations.

Nutrition

• Strengthen community/health facility linkages and scale up community level activities such as active case finding, mass screening and integrated outreaches in the most affected areas for timely detection and treatment of acute malnutrition among children under five years and PLW
• Ensure nutrition commodities are available to manage the increased caseload
• Advocate for food sector response to bridge the food gap at household level
• Consider implementing Blanket Supplementary Feeding Program (BSFP) for areas with high levels of acute malnutrition to prevent and mitigate the effects of acute malnutrition
• Increase program performance monitoring, nutrition surveillance and scale up IMAM surge approach through existing partnerships for early warning, system capacity adjustment and early action
• Continue nutrition capacity strengthening for improved health and nutrition service delivery
• Promote and strengthen already existing multi-sectoral engagement and collaboration to ensure coordinated multi-sectoral efforts and synergy to address contributory factors of acute malnutrition across sectors
• Continued advocacy and inclusion of nutrition outcomes for under-fives as core indicators in agriculture, WASH, education, food security and social protection programs for concerted efforts and accountability to prevent and reduce vulnerability to acute malnutrition especially in arid areas
• Update contingency and response plans as part of early action and response

Situation Monitoring and Update of Activities

Food Security

The key factors to monitor over the next six months include:

• Performance of 2019 short rains given the poor performance of the cumulative effect of the below average 2018 short rains and late onset of the 2019 long rains 
• Crop production in the high and medium rainfall areas.
• High and increasing staple food prices.
• Close monitoring of the trends of malnutrition and related outcomes such as morbidity and deaths in the most affected     counties.
• Human disease outbreaks; mainly Cholera, Measles, Kalazaar and the rising trend of diarrhoea

Nutrition

• Performance of 2019 short rains given the poor performance of the cumulative effect of the below average 2018 short rains and late onset of the 2019 long rains 
• Trends of malnutrition and related outcomes such as morbidity and deaths. 
• Scale up of live saving interventions (outreaches and mass screening) and IMAM program performance in areas with emergency levels of malnutrition 
• Disease outbreaks e.g. Cholera, Measles, Kalazaar and the rising trend of diarrhoea

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.

Current Situation Overview

According to the Integrated Phase Classification for Acute Malnutrition conducted in July 2019, nutrition situation has deteriorated in several counties compared to February 2019 (Figure 1) with Laisamis, Turkana South and North being in extremely critical phase (Phase 5; GAM WHZ ≥30 percent). North Horr, Turkana Central and West, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa as well as Tiaty in Baringo County were in critical phase (Phase 4; GAM WHZ 15.0 - 29.9 percent) while West Pokot and Isiolo Counties were classified in serious phase (Phase 3; GAM WHZ 10.0 -14.9 percent). Saku, Moyale, Baringo North and South were in poor phase (Phase 2; GAM WHZ ≥ 5 to 9.9 percent) while Laikipia, Kitui, Narok, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu were in acceptable phase (Phase 1; GAM WHZ

The high prevalence of acute malnutrition is mainly attributed to poor food availability with low milk production and consumption and increasing food prices observed in the most affected areas This has resulted from the cumulative negative effect of the below average 2018 short rains and the late on set of the 2019 long rains. High morbidity, limited access to health and nutrition services following scale down of integrated outreaches in some areas such as Laisamis in Marsabit, poor child practices coupled with pre-existing factors such as poverty, high illiteracy and poor infrastructure have aggravated the problem. Rains have been received in selected parts of ASAL counties such as Turkana and pasture has regenerated. However, the effect of the rains on milk availability will not be felt in the coming few months as animals will take time to breed as their body condition recover.

Projected Situation Overview

Acute malnutrition levels are expected to remain high though in the same phase in most areas assessed except in North Horr and Moyale which will deteriorate to phase 5 and 3 respectively. The expected high malnutrition levels will be mainly due to the projected food insecurity resulting from the increasing food prices, reduced milk availability as animals move further away from homes in search of pasture and deteriorating animal condition. The expected deterioration of WASH indicators due to drought and the associated increase in WASH related morbidities, the persistent cholera outbreak in selected counties such as Kajiado and Wajir and, Kalazaar in Marsabit and Wajir will impact negatively on malnutrition levels in the affected counties.