NOTE: the following text and attached document are extracted from the Kenya Long Rains Season Assessment - September 2015

The 2015 long rains assessment has established that about 1.1 million people are acutely food insecure. The food insecure populations are mainly in the northwest and northeast pastoral clusters, and the southeast marginal agricultural areas. 

The current areas under Crisis (IPC Phase 3) include parts of Merti and Sericho in Isiolo County and western parts of Wajir County (parts of Hadado, Eldas and Griftu). Households in Crisis can marginally meet their minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets, that exposes them to further food consumption gaps.

These areas as shown in Figure 1.3 have received cumulative rainfall deficits for the past three consecutive seasons, and have worse conditions for livestock, low water availability, and low milk availability. After the 2015 long rains, owing to the poor rains in these areas, neither rangeland conditions nor food security improved as would be seasonally expected. Water, pasture, and browse are in poor condition, and depleted in some instances. The poor condition of rangeland resources resulted in unusual out-migration of livestock from these areas. Migration also occurred earlier than normal, in May as opposed to August. Figure 1.4 depicts the migration routes within and across Counties. The mass migration of livestock has affected operations of some livestock markets, with significantly lower livestock volumes being traded in these markets.

The number of households in the stressed (IPC Phase 2) decreased in most areas in August 2015 as a result the better performance of the long rains compared to the previous short rain season. However despite the improvement the stressed phase has been predominant in most areas mainly attributed to the fact that the season was not good enough to facilitate a good recovery of the livelihoods. 

Food Security Prognosis through December 2015

Household food security is expected to seasonally decline through October in both marginal agricultural areas and pastoral livelihood zones.Though household food access and consumption are expected to be constrained up to October, majority of households would still be able to afford minimum dietary requirements and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, other areas of the marginal agricultural zones would remain in the minimal (IPC Phase 1).  

Assessment findings notes that factors contributing to food insecurity currently include:

• poor temporal and spatial distribution of the long rains
• below average long rains in some areas
• cumulative effects of the previous three consecutive poor rains seasons
• elevated food prices
• crop pests and diseases
• livestock diseases
• conflict incidences especially in the pastoral areas
• human-wildlife conflicts in areas bordering game reserves

To mitigate against the food insecure conditions, both the national and county governments together with development partners are implementing an array of activities which include:

• activation of drought contingency funds for all the affected ASAL counties
• Hunger Safety Net Programme which implements a cash transfer programme in Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit and Wajir
• food for assets/cash for assets programmes
• general food distribution
• provision of school meals under various programs including Home Grown School Meals Program
• Supplementary Feeding Programmes.