DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition 

In February 2021, an estimated 1.4 million people in Kenya (10% of the population in ASAL counties) were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Compared to the same period in 2020, there was a 15 percent increase from the 1.3 million people that were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. The deterioration and severity of acute food insecurity was mainly attributed to the poor performance of the seasonal rainfall. In the current period, Mandera and Turkana were classified in IPC Phase 3.

In the projection period of March to May 2021, the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to increase from 1.2 million people to about 1.8 million people (13% of the population in ASAL counties), while the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely to remain the same at about 239,000 people. The counties expected to have significant numbers in IPC Phase 3 or above are Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir. This is mainly attributed to the performance of the 2021 long rains season (March – May) forecast to be poor.

An estimated 541,700 children aged 6-59 months and 98,800 pregnant or lactating women require treatment for acute malnutrition. The nutrition situation has remained similar across arid counties compared to the August 2020 analysis and was Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 4) in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties in Marsabit County and Tiaty in Baringo County.

The main reason for the high levels of acute malnutrition is largely attributable to the reduced milk production and consumption among children, which is the main diet for children in arid areas. However, the large differences between the severity of acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition situations in these areas warrants further analysis.

Response Priorities

Acute Food Insecurity

• Take urgent action to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps for about two million people in high acute food insecurity in need of assistance for the next six months (March – August 2021);
• Build resilience to future shocks through asset creation, safety net programs and market access programs;
• Provide farm inputs, pest and disease control, post-harvest management and preservation and value addition;
• Support water trucking, repair, rehabilitation, extension and maintenance of water structures and systems, and promote rain water harvesting and technology;
• Procure commodities for management of acute malnutrition, update contingency plans, and scale up community level health and nutrition services in the face of COVID-19 cases. Monitor closely the effects of COVID-19 and strengthen multisector linkages;
• Expand the school meals program, infrastructure in existing schools, and the implementation of COVID- 19 guidelines.

Acute Malnutrition

• Monitor closely the projected worsening trends including safely resuming household level surveillance activities such as the use of regular MUAC in the Early Warning System and integrated nutrition SMART surveys for improved detection and monitoring of the food and nutrition situation;
• Continue to advocate for national and county governments to allocate resources aimed at addressing malnutrition, including social safety net programs and procurement of commodities for management of acute malnutrition;
• Continue to advocate on the role of nutrition in disease management, including in management of COVID-19 cases, especially for those under home-based isolation and care;
• Continue to monitor the effects of COVID-19 on continuity of essential services and livelihoods to mitigate its effect on the food and nutrition situation; and
• Ensure timely contingency and response planning for early action and mitigate the effects of the projected worsening food and drought situation on nutrition.

Risk Factors to Monitor

The key factors to monitor over the next six months include:

• Performance of the March to May long rains season;
• COVID – 19 trends, control and related impacts;
• Nutrition situation across the country given worsening projected trends;
• Control of the desert locust swarms and possible resurgence;
• National food stocks; and
• Livestock disease outbreak.