Kenya: Acute Malnutrition Projection Update March - June 2022
Projection Update of the March to June 2022 Analysis
01.03.2022 > 30.06.2022
March - June 2022 



& next steps


DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis. 

This IPC projection update for the Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) region, covering the March to June period, was triggered by several cumulative factors. Firstly, the expected March-April-May seasonal rainfall amount received across most livelihood zones was below the long-term seasonal averages and exacerbated by poor spatial distribution. This negatively affected rangeland and also sparked resource-based conflicts. These resource-based conflicts are coupled with rising food commodity prices due to depressed crop production that coincides with the peak lean season for most Arid and Semi-Arid Livelihood counties. Overall, these factors indicate an increase in the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity to 4.1 million, over the 3.5 million initially projected over the same period. This includes 1.1 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 3 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

According to the revised assumptions regarding Acute Malnutrition (AMN), the previously forecasted change (deterioration) in the AMN situation in eight counties will likely continue following the same trend. The only exception is Mandera County, where new evidence from a recent SMART survey conducted in March found a prevalence of a Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) of 34,7%. Therefore, the county is now classified in an Extremely Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 5) from March to May. About 942,500 children aged 6-59 months are affected by acute malnutrition and need treatment. In Mandera alone, the overall number of children in need of treatment has increased to nearly 126,140, representing an increase of 30%. The decline in household consumption and particularly of dairy products due to reduced mild availability has expected implications for child malnutrition, but it is not the only factor. High morbidity to diseases affecting the Respiratory Tract and water-borne diseases are also a major driver.

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