DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.

In the analysis period of February 2020, 1.3 million people (9 % of the population analyzed) are estimated to have faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food Insecurity, of which 296,500 people faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity in Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir; 1,022,500 people are faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) mainly in 19 counties out of the 23. In the projection period of April-July 2020, 980,000 people (6% of the population analyzed) will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, with 112,500 people in the counties of Kwale, Turkana and Marsabit estimated to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The most acute food insecurity conditions were observed in the flood-affected counties that led to overspread damage and loss of livelihoods in Meru, Taita Taveta as well as West Pokot where there were reported loss of lives and population displacement resulting from heavy storms and landslides. This was due to prolonged and above average rainfall during October-December rains. Livestock disease outbreaks were widespread in Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Meru, Narok, Taita, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir that slightly reduced livestock production. The invasion of desert locust in December 2019 affected crops, pasture and browse in Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui, Tana River, Kajiado, Makueni, Baringo, Turkana, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Samburu, Makueni, and Meru. The impact of the damage of desert locusts on livelihoods was minimal and localized in the current analysis as most of the planted crops were at maturity stage or harvested.

The cumulative effects of flooding with associated population displacements, infestation of desert locusts and outbreaks of livestock diseases led to acute food insecurity. Flooding rendered roads impassable affecting functionality of markets and ultimately food accessibility. There were significant crop losses as a result of flooding, damage of pasture and browse by desert locust as well as outbreak of livestock diseases in majority of counties that included Foot and Mouth Disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, East Coast Fever, Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP). It is projected that the long rains (March-April-May) will be normal to above normal, which is likely to increase to crop production and good pasture and browse. However, in the projected period (April to July); flooding and outbreak of livestock diseases are expected. The desert locusts continue to lay eggs in most of the counties. Due to the upcoming cropping season in April, in a worst-case scenario where operations fail to be intensified to control the desert locusts, it is expected that they are likely to cause massive crop damage as well as significant pasture and browse destruction.

Food Security and Nutrition Response Priorities

• Update the nutrition response plan and county contingency plans;
• Continue efforts to strengthen multi-sectoral linkages and coordination forums at the county level to address the underlying and basic causes of the high levels of acute malnutrition reported even in non-drought periods;
• Continue to strengthen system capacity to deliver WASH, health and nutrition services for improved program quality and coverage – to ensure access to services is not further compromised in the face of scaling down integrated outreach services. Improve awareness through campaigns on proper hygiene and emphasis on the use of sanitation facilities in areas that are most affected by the WASH situation;
• Advocate for national and county government funding to procure commodities for management of acute malnutrition;
• Closely monitor and respond to households affected by desert locust invasion to mitigate effects on food insecurity and malnutrition;
• Engagement with COVID-19 coordination and preparedness mechanisms to mitigate likely impacts on food and nutrition security;
• Strengthen community health services including, Baby Friendly Community Initiative (BFCI).
• Strengthening accelerated health services targeting under-fives and PLW through the malezi bora initiative.
• Advocate for allocation of resources for food and safety net to an estimated 1.3 million food insecure people in need of assistance with intervention focused on reducing malnutrition and increasing resilience of affected communities;
• Initiation of community resilience programs such as women empowerment to enable them to cope with various shocks including the COVID-19;
• Enhance asset creation activities, disease control like desert locust control and management and cross boarder human and animal diseases surveillance and management, rain water harvesting technologies to enhance crop production;
• Enhance pastoral and agro-pastoral activities for pasture establishment and conservation, livestock restocking; dryland water harvesting management and supply systems;
• Enhance provision of school meals, construction and rehabilitation of classrooms and latrines, water storage facilities and provision sanitary towels for girls;
• Strengthen multi-sectoral coordination initiatives at the county and sub county level to address cross-cutting issues that indirectly affecting food security and nutrition status of vulnerable groups;
• Enhance and support resource based peace and conflict resolution mechanism in ASAL counties;
• Sustain program performance monitoring, coordination and surveillance.

Situation Monitoring and IPC Updated

• Performance of 2020 Long rains
• Disease outbreaks e.g. Cholera, Measles, Kalazaar and the rising trend of diarrhoea
• Monitor the Desert Locusts invasion and impact
• Monitor the seasonal and unseasonal Floods
• Monitor high staple food prices and trends