Based on integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted in June and July 2022 and subsequent IPC analysis, agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay Region in Somalia are projected to face Famine (IPC Phase 5) between October and December 2022 in the absence of significant humanitarian assistance reaching people most in need. This Famine projection was made by a multi-disciplinary team of technical experts working as part of the Somalia IPC Technical Working Group (IPC TWG). The analysis and evidence for the Famine projection were subsequently reviewed and technically vetted by the Famine Review Committee (FRC) – a panel of independent international food security and nutrition experts. 

The humanitarian situation in Bay region and other parts of Somalia has been deteriorating in recent months as the level of humanitarian assistance fails to keep pace with rising levels of need, and as the coping capacity of the most vulnerable is exhausted due to the combined impact of four consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, sharp increases in food prices, and conflict. 

The results of the integrated surveys conducted in June and July 2022 in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and among displaced populations in Baidoa town indicate levels of acute malnutrition and mortality that are indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

The full report on Somalia's food security and nutrition situation will be published in the coming days.

According to the IPC, famine is an acute episode of extreme lack of food characterised by starvation, widespread deaths, destitution and extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition. Famines are extreme forms of human suffering and should be avoided at all costs.   

Without large-scale, immediate and appropriate life-saving assistance, famine will mostly likely materialise with mass starvation and the widespread death of adults and children. The following actions are recommended: 

 For donors 

• Recognise the extreme urgency of the situation and plan, coordinate, and allocate necessary humanitarian resources to prevent a famine in the coming months. The early warning signs are clear, and all key stakeholders have a strong consensus that current levels of committed humanitarian support are inadequate to stave off further increases in massive human suffering and mortality. 

For the humanitarian community

• Urgent assistance to prevent widespread deaths and starvation: Stop and reverse the inexorable deterioration into famine in the coming months, by mobilising and providing urgently needed and coordinated assistance in the form of critical life-saving food and cash assistance, combined with an immediate scale-up of the response in the nutrition, WASH and Health sector.  
• Livelihood assistance to boost waning resilience: Considering communities' significantly diminished resilience, the high vulnerability to shocks and the protected nature of food insecurity and malnutrition, close collaboration between humanitarian and development programmes are needed to tackle the underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition and enhance resilience.

 For the conflicting parties

• The parties to the conflict in Somalia must allow and facilitate rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief for civilians, especially those most in need, which is impartial in character and conducted without any adverse distinction, subject to their right of control.