This projection update on the food security situation in the Tri-National Border Region of the Río Lempa (MTFRL)—located within the Central American Dry Corridor—revises the earlier projections for the periods July to October 2026 and November 2026 to March 2027 across the four micro-regions, indicating a deterioration across both periods. The update was undertaken to assess the impact of several worsening factors, including the effects of El Niño, crop losses, the depletion of food reserves, sustained price increases, and declining household incomes.

The updated projection for the first projection period (July to October 2026) estimates that around 187,000 people (26 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), representing an increase of 30,000 people compared with the previous projection for the same period. The deterioration is concentrated in two micro-regions of the Dry Corridor (Ch’orti’ and Ocotepeque). Within the population classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, an estimated 17,000 people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), which is characterised by large food consumption gaps.

For the second projection period (November 2026 to March 2027), the prolonged mid-summer drought (canícula) between July and August 2026 resulted in worse-than-expected outcomes, leading to a significant deterioration in acute food insecurity conditions. The impacts are expected to include the severe depletion of household food reserves, crop losses during the Postrera season (the second annual cropping season), and reduced employment opportunities. It is estimated that 183,000 people (26 percent of the population) will likely to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) conditions, representing an increase of 97,000 people compared with the previous projection for the same period. The Ch’orti’ and Ocotepeque micro-regions are expected to remain the most affected.

• Prioritise emergency response and food assistance interventions in municipalities under red and yellow alert within departments classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), with the objective of mitigating food consumption gaps and preventing further deterioration in the nutritional status of the affected population.
• Mobilise and coordinate humanitarian assistance, support mechanisms for smallholder farmers, and short-term projects that enable an immediate response, helping to reduce food consumption gaps and protect and improve the livelihoods of populations facing Crisis and Emergency conditions.
• Design and implement immediate interventions in coordination with development and humanitarian partners, municipalities, and the governing board of the MTFRL to facilitate the delivery of agricultural inputs, or short-term assistance packages that help mitigate the effects of the crisis and strengthen the livelihoods of affected communities.
• Conduct municipal-level targeting of populations vulnerable to acute food insecurity, particularly households that have depleted their food reserves and are employing Crisis- or Emergency-level coping strategies, in order to ensure that assistance reaches those most in need.