During the current period of February to May 2023 which coincides with the post-harvest (basic grains and coffee) season, 85,000 people (16% of the population analysed) are in Food Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher). Urgent action is needed, with the response aimed at protecting livelihoods and reducing food consumption gaps. Of this population, approximately 77,000 are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 8,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The inflation rate has doubled in comparison to 2022, reaching 13.2%, which has an impact on the purchasing power of families. This combined with rising fuel and agricultural input prices as well as low food reserves and purchase dependence has affected the current situation.

The severity of the seasonal hunger period between June to September 2023 will see the number of people facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) increase to 133,000 (25% of the population analysed). The number of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will likely increase from 8,000 in the current period to 13,000 in the first projection period. It will decrease back down to 8,000 in the second project period. The most affected micro-region is Ch'orti' (Guatemala), classified in Phase 3 with 22%, 33% and 26% of its population in IPC Phase 3 or above for each of the three respective periods. The other three micro-regions (Ocotepeque, Güija and Cayaguanca) are classified in Phase 2 (Stressed) in the current and projected periods. However, the number of people in acute food insecurity will likely increase in the first projected period and then decrease in the second projected period in those regions. 

• Activate immediate social protection response in populations in Crisis or Emergency (Phase 3 or Phase 4) to save lives, reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods.
• Target the population vulnerable to acute food insecurity at the municipal level that meet characteristics such as the depletion of their reserves and the use of Crisis or Emergency strategies.
• Implement a communication strategy to socialise the results of this analysis with local authorities, actors and potential donors to respond to the needs of the population in the short and medium-term.
• Design a work strategy to attend to the vulnerable populations and protect and strengthen livelihoods, considering the lines of action included in the Local Public Policy Zero Hunger, Inclusive Territorial Economic Development and using information generated in this analysis, the resilience measurement and in the food and nutritional surveillance system of the Trinational zone.
• Continue the management with donors and government institutions for the insertion of groups vulnerable to food insecurity in the area in economic reactivation projects.
• Continue the Trinational Food and Nutrition Surveillance System -SITVAN- with the MTFRL, Mancomunidad Güisayote and Mancomunidad de Municipios del Valle de Sensenti (MANVASEN), guaranteeing the availability of information, prioritizing indicators of food consumption, changes in livelihoods, nutritional status and some factors contributing to food insecurity.
• For future analysis, contextualise the livelihood coping strategy related to begging, and standardise enumerators for the proper formulation of the question.