This acute food insecurity analysis was an update of the projection period of June - August 2021, that corresponds to the lean season, and includes four micro-regions of the Trifinio Region: Cayaguanca, Ch’orti’, Güija and Ocotepeque, with a total analysed population of 486,000 people.

The update has resulted in changes to the population estimates, but the classifications have remained the same. The proportion of people in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) in Cayaguanca and Ch’orti’ increased, while that in Güija decreased, with Ocotepeque showing no change with what was expected for this period in the analysis conducted in November 2020.

Overall, 33% of the population is in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above. This analysis took place in a context where COVID-19 cases and mortality have increased at departmental levels and continue to be a key driver in the slow economic recovery and migration constraints that restrict the local cross-border economy. In the Ch’orti’ micro-region, which is the most affected, the lean season started early, due to the damage caused by the passage of hurricanes ETA and IOTA.

Throughout the territory, sources of income have been reduced due to the end of the coffee and grain harvesting period, and the late onset of the rainy season, which also impacts agricultural activity for Primera planting, forcing small producers to use savings or reduce planting areas. Other employment options are constrained by high public transport costs due to biosecurity measures put in place by governments around the COVID-19 pandemic. Food stocks are depleted or stretched to the limit, leaving households dependent on purchasing from local markets, where prices have increased, especially for processed products such as oil and butter, possibly due to rising fuel prices, restricting access, consumption and dietary diversity. No humanitarian assistance is planned for this region in this period that has the capacity to change the severity of the acute food insecurity.

• Manage social protection support to reduce consumption gaps in populations in Emergency (Phase 4).
• Coordinate response support with local partners to reduce consumption gaps in populations in Crisis or Emergency (Phase 3 or 4), in order to save lives.
• Monitor the actions generated to mitigate further damage, protect and recover the livelihoods of the population in Stressed, Crisis or Emergency situations (Phases 2, 3 or 4), as a risk prevention measure.
• Submit to the MTFRL Board of Directors, regional bodies, international agencies, national FNS governing bodies, local governments and partners, the analysis update report, accompanied by an immediate response proposal for their information, validation and implementation.
• Monitor the situation of prices, household incomes and food sources, as well as that of COVID-19 and its effects on the MTFRL region as elements for future analysis.
• Give continuity to the Tri-national Food and Nutrition Surveillance System -SITVAN- in the MTFRL, ensuring the availability of information, prioritising indicators of food consumption, changes in livelihoods, nutritional status and mortality, in order to support a next analysis with new periods of validity at the end of 2021.
• In the short term, evaluate scenarios and measures implemented according to the evolution of COVID-19, in order to identify possible threats and vulnerability in the population.