From April to June 2026, an estimated 113,000 people (16 percent of the analysed population) in the Tri-National Border Region of the Río Lempa—which lies within the Central American Dry Corridor—are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of these, approximately 8,000 people are facing in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions, requiring urgent response actions. The situation is primarily driven by climatic variability, depleted food stocks and elevated food prices. The Ch’orti’ micro-region presents the most severe situation, with about 80,000 people (25 percent of its population) experiencing Crisis or worse (Phase 3 or above) conditions. Although the proportion remains stable compared with the previous year (16 percent), the total number of people affected is higher, partly due to the larger population analysed in 2026 (701,000 compared to 605,000 people).

For the first projection period, corresponding to the seasonal lean period from July to October 2026 and further influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate significantly, with an estimated 157,000 people (23 percent of the population) likely to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) conditions. The Ch’orti’ micro-region is expected to remain the most affected, with 35 percent of its population (112,000 people) in Crisis or worse (Phase 3 or above).

For the second projection period, from November 2026 to March 2027, acute food insecurity is expected to improve in both severity and magnitude compared to the preceding lean season. An estimated 86,000 people (13 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) conditions. This improvement is mainly attributed to the availability of the main harvest of staple crops, partial replenishment of maize and bean stocks, and increased seasonal labour demand—particularly for coffee and other crops.

• Activate an immediate social protection response for populations in Crisis or Emergency situations (IPC Phase 3 or above) in order to reduce food consumption gaps and save lives, as well as to implement actions linked to medium- and long-term objectives.
• Identify populations at risk of acute food insecurity at the municipal level and that have used up their reserves and resorted to crisis or emergency coping strategies.
• Given that the classifications of the units of analysis have not undergone significant changes in the last seven years, it is recommended that an analysis of Protracted Acute Food Insecurity be carried out in the territory.
• Continue to engage with donors and government institutions to promote the inclusion of groups vulnerable to food insecurity in economic recovery projects in the area.