Approximately 1.4 million people—equivalent to 13 percent of the analysed population—experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between November and March 2026, including over 35,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide. Food insecurity was primarily driven by high food prices, limited household food reserves, and irregular rainfall patterns.

In the first projection period (April to July 2026), the situation is expected to deteriorate, with around 1.8 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including approximately 95,000 people in IPC Phase 4. This increase is consistent with seasonal patterns of acute food insecurity, driven by the depletion of household food stocks and increased reliance on market purchases during the lean season, alongside continued high food prices and rising production costs.

For the second projection period (August to October 2026), conditions are expected to persist, with an estimated 1.8 million people (18 percent of the analysed population) facing IPC Phase 3 or above. However, the number of people in IPC Phase 4 is projected to decrease to around 60,000 people, reflecting seasonal improvements in food availability following harvests.

• Strengthen early warning information systems for drought and food and nutrition security to support coordination mechanisms and the targeting of anticipatory actions by government and international cooperation actors.
• Promote the use of fiscal stabilization mechanisms to mitigate the effects of international conflicts on domestic markets, particularly on agricultural inputs and food prices.
• Improve the targeting of geographic areas and populations in need of humanitarian food assistance across all departments, both for the current situation and projected periods.
• Considering rainfall forecasts indicating below-average patterns, prioritise areas historically affected by drought and promote preparedness, mitigation, and livelihood recovery actions, improving the targeting of assistance and support inputs.
• Prioritise government and partner programmes that strengthen response capacities among households most exposed to vulnerability.
• Disseminate this report among decision-makers, media, and civil society organizations to inform and strengthen response actions in the short and medium term.
• Continue strengthening and establishing municipal Food and Nutrition Security coordination platforms to enhance local capacity to manage responses across sectors related to food and nutrition security.