Until the end of September most of the areas analyzed are in Phase 1 (Minimal). This is because the harvest of the first cycle is recent and most households have a maize stock. The sale of a part of the reserve and the different employment opportunities, especially the ones related to the last cycle allow households to access essential needs. However, yields in the first cycle have been very low (losses of between 50% and 70% in the area of ​​basic grains compared to normal production). The "agricultural and coffee" zone is classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed).

In poor households, which are the ones that have the most members and have less land, of areas with losses of 70% or more (municipalities of Aguanqueterique, Mololica, Soledad, Liure and Vadoancho) grain reserves are non-existent and households are dependent on limited employment and early sale of crops like maicillo. In this way, the poor households of these municipalities will be able to acquire sufficient corn and beans to meet their needs until mid-October or early November, but not meet other needs (phase 2). From then they will need alternative sources to obtain income. Such alternatives may not be insured because of the impact of rust disease in coffee plantations that absorb labor starting from November.

The main factors driving food insecurity in the analyzed period are: 

• loss of prime crops due to drought 
• premature depletion of food reserves
• lower income generation opportunities compared to other periods of the year

Problems by zones

• Zone 5: Crop losses and basic grain reserves due to droughts. With an increase in common diseases such as dengue, acute respiratory infections, skin, internal parasitism, gastrointestinal diseases. The validity of the analysis of this zone would be until the first of October.
• Zone 6: Cross-border migration to El Salvador to search for wages and border trade. Reduction of remittances at this time. Low performance on production of basic grains. Damaged access roads to different communities. Increased incidence of malaria and dengue diseases. The validity of the analysis of this zone would be until the first of November.
• Zone 8: Low rainfall up to 40% in the area. Losses of up to 70% are estimated in the first cycle in Morolica, Liure, Soledad and Vadoancho. About 50% of the population does not have piped water service and 36.6% do not give any water treatment. The validity of the analysis of this zone would be until October 15.
• Zone 3: Less family income from losses of about 79% in basic grain production. Job opportunities limited to 3 wages per household and week that only reaches to cover the basic food basket. 30% of the population does not have access to piped drinking water. The validity of the analysis of this zone would be until the first of October.

Recommendations on the following steps of the analysis:

• For the next analysis, include updated information on the impact of rust on coffee production and its implications in the generation of employment opportunities.
• Have information on epidemiological aspects of the region.
• Involve in the analysis personnel of the health institutions, that are present in the territory.
• Incorporate more representative information on losses of basic grains in the region.
• Carry out an update on the region's livelihoods.
• Incorporate the new data that will be generated from the survey that will be applied in the UTSAN, WFP, FAO, among other institutions.