Between July 2022 and June 2023, an estimated 1.4 million children under five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition based on analysis and estimations from the results of the SMART nutrition surveys, Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System (FSNMS) and program admission trends. Approximately 345,893 will need SAM treatment, while another 1,057,703 will need MAM treatment. Acute malnutrition burden will be highly concentrated in the four states of Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity and Warrap in, about 61% of the total burden. As for the severity of the situation, during July and October, 30 counties are classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical), 15 counties in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious), 19 counties in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) and 13 in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable). Unlike in the past, not much improvement is expected during the post-harvest season. Instead, the situation is expected to deteriorate in 50 counties. Deterioration in 20 counties is likely to cause a change in classification to the worst phase.

In comparison, in another 30 counties, the situation will likely deteriorate but remain within the same IPC AMN phase. Overall, in the post-harvest period, counties in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) and IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) will likely increase from 45 to 56. The lean season will likely see a further deterioration in all counties, thus increasing the number of counties in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) and IPC AMN Phase 4(Critical) to 59 counties.

Humanitarian Food Assistance

Humanitarian food assistance must be scaled up immediately to save lives and prevent a total collapse of livelihoods in locations where populations were classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity.

Treatment

While ensuring universal treatment for acute malnutrition is a priority, attention must also be given to addressing the identified major contributing factors to prevent acute malnutrition in the future. Continued scale-up of treatment of acute malnutrition targeting the current and future caseload is a high priority. Further expansion of services to previously insecure areas for severe and moderate acute malnutrition treatment is also essential to reach the previously less accessible areas.