The acute food insecurity and malnutrition situation in South Sudan is deteriorating as a result of the economic crisis, repeated climatic shocks – primarily widespread flooding – and conflict and insecurity. The inflow of returnees and refugees fleeing the conflict in Sudan is exacerbating the situation – putting additional pressure on an already fragile country.

Between September and November 2024, an estimated 6.3 million people (47 percent of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Of this total, 1.71 million people are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity – classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and a further 41,000 people are facing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity or IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The population in Phase 5 (Catastrophe) includes 10,000 people in Malakal county (Upper Nile State) and an estimated 31,000 South Sudanese returnees who have fled Sudan because of the ongoing conflict. Compared to the same period last year, this indicates an increase of approximately 500,000 people in Phase 3 or above.

In the harvest/post-harvest projection period of December 2024 to March 2025, an estimated 6.1 million people (45 percent of the population analysed) will likely experience IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Of this total, 1.71 million people are projected to be in Phase 4 and 31,000 South Sudanese returnees will likely experience Phase 5 (Catastrophe).

In the second projection period of April to July 2025, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate with the arrival of the lean season. It is likely that an estimated 7.69 million people (57 percent of the population analysed) will be in Phase 3 or above. This will include 2.53 million people likely to be in Phase 4 and 63,000 people likely to be in Phase 5 (Catastrophe).

Lifesaving humanitarian response: Humanitarian food and livelihood assistance must be scaled up immediately to save lives and prevent a total collapse of livelihoods in locations where populations were classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) acute food insecurity.

Promote de-escalation of violence and facilitate response: Continue implementing the peace agreement and addressing the root causes of insecurity and conflict in the affected locations across the country, while stepping up efforts to advocate for peaceful co-existence.

Livelihood support: Scale up livelihood support such as provision of seeds and tools (farm inputs) to support agricultural production and return it back to surplus levels to reduce dependence on food imports and increase self-sufficiency. Farmers need to be supported to adapt to climate-induced environmental changes by training them on climate-smart agricultural practices and distributing climate-adapted (flood/drought resistant) crop varieties.