Afghanistan continues to face severe acute food insecurity, with 15.9 million people (32 percent of the population) facing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between September and October 2026, including 3.4 million people experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions. 

Economic pressures—weak purchasing power, unemployment, inflation, rising input costs due to the Middle East conflict, cross-border tensions with Pakistan, trade disruptions, and large-scale returns—continue to strain large segments of the Afghan population. Although improved rainfall and better agricultural production have supported food availability, declining humanitarian assistance is eroding households’ ability to cope. 

The situation is expected to deteriorate during the winter lean season (November 2026–April 2027), with nearly 19.2 million people (38 percent) projected to face Phase 3 or above, including 5 million people in Phase 4. 

• Scale up Humanitarian Food Security Assistance (HFSA) and emergency agriculture support: Expand timely food assistance and shock-responsive social protection during the winter and lean season, while providing timely agricultural and livelihood support to protect productive assets, sustain production and support upcoming farming cycles. 
• Scale up anticipatory action and strengthen humanitarian response linkages: Use climate and agricultural early warning information to trigger timely action before predictable shocks, including localised floods, heavy snowfall, livestock stress and agricultural pest or disease risks. Protect standing production, livestock and productive assets and strengthen links between early warning, anticipatory financing and district-level response planning. 
• Enhance preparedness and responses for returnees: Strengthen monitoring, preparedness and response mechanisms for potential returnee influxes from Pakistan and Iran to ensure timely, integrated, area-based support that addresses immediate food needs; strengthens livelihoods, productive assets, skills and income opportunities; and reduces pressure on vulnerable host communities.