From April to June 2016, 8.4 million people were classified in the acute food insecurity crisis and emergency situation all over Afghanistan. The most food insecure populations were located in Ghor, Badakhshan, Nuristan & Nangarhar that were in higher crises & emergency phases. 

With the arrival of winter and peak of lean season, refugees population would be of greatest concern. National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be good due to relatively favourable weather and precipitation that increased cultivation of both rain-fed and irrigated wheat. This precipitation has also improved spring pasture condition.

During the projected period between July and December 2016, internal conflicts and policy changes of neighbouring countries on Afghan refugees causing waves of returnees in various parts of the country will have significant impact on food security of hosting areas, district and provinces. Eastern provinces, especially Nangarhar, are burdened with almost 70% of the returnees from Pakistan who have been receiving short term assistance. It’s worth mentioning that undocumented returnees are the most vulnerable as they are not receiving any type of assistance during departure while on arrival some support which is not sufficient.

In the previous 6 months overall 245,254 individuals were displaced and fled their homes due to conflicts. In spite of humanitarian assistance, people are still vulnerable to inadequate shelter, food insecurity, insufficient access to sanitation and health facilities, as well as a lack of protection, often result in precarious living conditions that jeopardise the wellbeing and dignity of affected families. Meanwhile, 67,721 individuals have been affected by natural disasters due to floods, landslides, avalanches & earthquakes.

A total of 8.3 million people have currently achieved food security. This means that they are able to meet their food and essential nonfood needs without engaging in atypical, unsustainable strategies to access food and income, including any reliance on humanitarian aid.

In general out of 32 provinces analysed during projection period (July-December 2016): 

• 9 Provinces will remain in crisis (Phase 3);
• 22 provinces will remain in stressed (Phase 2);
• only one province will be in minimal (Phase 1) food insecurity situation

Government and partners should intensify the focus on increasing the capacity of recurrent hazards of affected populations to avert upcoming shocks and stresses. Moreover, they must further articulate policies that look to synchronize humanitarian emergency assistance and longer-term development to break the poverty cycle.

While mass repatriation from Pakistan must be accompanied with effective government policies that facilitate the returnees reinsertion and help lessen liabilities of host communities, it should not distract from the continuing needs of those who are increasingly leaving homes and assets in all parts of Afghanistan so that they can save their own and children’s lives.

The role of the private sector can be crucial in decreasing food insecurity in Afghanistan if coordinated with national and provincial strategies and communities priorities; this, even more so, in least accessible areas, as government incentives can encourage investment in livelihoods in any kind of context. It is important that stakeholders recognize the complexity of the contexts in which diverse populations are facing food insecurity in Afghanistan, and continue to develop strategies that are appropriate and effective depending on context and populations. In particular, it is recommended to consider the following actions:  

Offer sustained and well paid employment opportunities as unemployment and specifically underemployment is one of the main causes of food insecurity and poverty. 
Establish early warning system to reach end user on timely manner. Agriculture is the main livelihood in rural Afghanistan and the losses due to natural hazards are very high hits the country on annual basis, while the risk could be reduced with early warning. 
Reduce risk of natural hazards, by applying interagency joint DRR projects and natural disaster prone areas. Establish a clear interagency policy and strategy for IDPs, returnees and refugees. Monitor food assistance and track the impacts on food security situation.