Afghanistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation August - October 2020 and Projection for November 2020 - March 2021
COVID-19 impacts, high food prices, reduced income and conflict are key drivers of food insecurity
01.08.2020 > 31.03.2021


& next steps



Between August and October 2020, corresponding to the post-harvest season, it is estimated that a total of 11.15 million people (36% of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian action. This included around 7.54 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 3.6 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Around 11.34 million people were also in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and require livelihood support.

Between November 2020 and March 2021, corresponding to the lean season, around 13.15 million people (42% of the total population) are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), out of which an estimated 8.85 million people will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 4.3 million people will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Furthermore, around 10.6 million people are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Key Drivers

  • COVID-19: The consequences of restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 have resulted in a significant decrease of daily wage opportunities and small trader income. 
  • Conflict: Ongoing conflict in most provinces has led to displacement, caused loss of livelihoods, or affected people’s livelihoods. Access to contested areas remained limited during the current period and is expected to remain the same during projection. 
  • High Food Prices: High food prices of commodities have negatively impacted the purchasing power of people and further exacerbates food access, especially for households already living below the poverty line.
  • Floods: Floods have resulted in the loss of shelters and productive assets, causing displacement and increasing food insecurity.

Overview of the process

The Afghanistan IPC analysis team conducted an IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis in September 2020. During the analytical process, the analysis team members could not reach full consensus on the classification of 10 areas. The disagreement involved FEWS NET on one side and the rest of the organizations represented in the analysis team on the other.

In accordance with IPC protocols, and upon request from FEWS NET, the IPC Global Support Unit coordinated an external quality review to assess the classification of these areas. Five experts from IPC global partners (AAH, CARE, FAO, FEWS NET and WFP) volunteered to participate in this review.

On this webpage, you will find the report from the external quality review as well as the report from the Afghanistan IPC Technical Working Group which reflects the technical consensus of all country IPC Technical Working Group members, with the exception of FEWS NET for 10 areas.

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