South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Situation January 2020 and Projections for February - April 2020 and May - July 2020
The food insecurity levels will remain elevated due to persistent poor macroeconomic conditions and the impact of flooding on livelihoods, but the situation is expected to improve for some areas in 2020 compared to last year.
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.01.2020 > 31.07.2020
JANUARY 2020 
FEBRUARY - APRIL 2020 
MAY - JULY 2020 
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Key
results


Population
estimates


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


In the analysis period of January 2020, 5.29 million people (45.2% of the population) are estimated to have faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 1.11 million people faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity. About 40,000 people were classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the counties of Akobo , Duk  and Ayod  in Jonglei State. Compared with the same time last year, the January 2020 levels of food insecurity reflect a 9% reduction  in the proportion of population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity.

In the projection period of February to April 2020, 6.01 million people (51.4% of the population) will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, with 20,000 people in the counties of Akobo and Duk estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In the projection period of May to July 2020, 6.48 million people (55.4% of the population) will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, which is 5% lower than was projected for the 2019 lean season .

Immediate scale-up of humanitarian food assistance is needed to save lives and avert total collapse of livelihoods in the affected counties particularly those with populations in Catastrophe (Phase 5) and Emergency (Phase 4).

The most severe acute food insecurity conditions are in the flood-affected counties of Akobo, Duk and Ayod.  In January 2020, 15 counties across the country were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, with Greater Upper Nile region having 12 (Longochuk, Maban, Maiwut and Ulang of Upper Nile State; and Akobo, Ayod, Canal/Pigi, Duk, Fangak, Nyirol, Pibor and Uror of Jonglei State); Greater Bahr el Ghazal region having 2 (Rumbek North of Lakes State, and Aweil North of Northern Bahr el Ghazal); and Greater Equatoria region having 1 (Kapoeta North of Eastern Equatoria State). Of the remaining counties, 51 are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 12 are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). From February to April 2020, 22 counties are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and the number will increase to 33 counties in May to July 2020.

The cumulative effects of flooding and associated population displacements, localized insecurity, the economic crisis, and prolonged years of asset depletion continue to drive the high levels of acute food insecurity in the country. Low crop production is also a contributing factor, with the 2019 cropping season production meeting 63% of the 2020 national cereal needs (comparatively, 2018 cereal production met 57% of the 2019 national cereal needs). Isolated insecurity incidents displace populations, disrupt livelihoods and impede households’ access to other food sources, such as wild foods, fish, and livestock products. The high food prices and continued currency depreciation have also consistently reduced the purchasing power of vulnerable households who are reliant on market purchases for their food and other basic needs. Seasonal scarcity of food coupled with a general reduction in humanitarian food assistance, when compared to the recent past, will likely result in an increase of acute food insecurity during the projection periods.

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