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South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation in January 2018 and Projections for February-April 2018 and May-July 2018
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.01.2018 > 31.07.2018
JANUARY 2018 
FEBRUARY - APRIL 2018 
MAY - JULY 2018 
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Key
results


Population
estimates


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


In January 2018, 5.3 million people (48% of the population) are estimated to be facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) acute food insecurity, out of which 1 million people are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity. Compared with the same time last year, this reflects a 40% increase in the population facing severe food insecurity in the post-harvest season. Worsening food insecurity is primarily driven by protracted conflict and displacements, which have contributed to insufficient crop production (only 61% of the 2018 national cereal needs are met by the harvest), disruptions to livelihoods and persistent macroeconomic deterioration. Livelihoods have been further eroded by climatic shocks, such as prolonged dry spells and flooding, and pest infestations (e.g. Fall Armyworm).

Food security has slightly improved since September 2017 as a result of a combination of large-scale humanitarian assistance, harvests, seasonal availability of fish and livestock products. As of January 2018 there are no longer populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Ayod and the Elevated Risk of Famine in greater Baggari sub-area of Western Bahr el Ghazal has been prevented. In particular, humanitarian assistance has prevented a worsening food security situation in 17 counties.

In February-April 2018, with humanitarian assistance planned, funded and likely there are 53 counties in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 17 counties in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and none in Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, in the absence of all forms of humanitarian assistance, in February–April 2018, an estimated 6.3 million (57% of the population) would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 50,000 are estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

In May-July 2018, with humanitarian assistance planned, funded and likely there are 40 counties in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), 31 counties in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and none in Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, in the continued absence of all forms of humanitarian assistance, in May–July 2018, an estimated 7.1 million people (63% of the population) would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity, of which 155,000 are estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and 2.3 million are estimated to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) – at this time, rising excess mortality and acute malnutrition would be expected.

In the worst-case scenario, large-scale Catastrophe leading to Famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely in protracted absence of humanitarian assistance and conflict-related restrictions to population movement, and counties of greatest concern are Leer, Koch, Panyijiar, Ayod, Nyirol, and Uror. Therefore, delivering large-scale multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance is needed urgently to save lives in eleven counties namely Leer, Mayendit, Ayod, Nyirol, Uror, Koch, Panyijiar, Fangak, Pibor, Longochuk, and Wau (greater Baggari sub-area). In May–July 2018, delivery of planned humanitarian assistance will likely prevent another 19 counties  from falling into Emergency (IPC Phase 4). However, even with the planned levels of humanitarian assistance, in May-July 2018, 31 counties are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity and will require large-scale assistance to prevent extreme food security outcomes and loss of lives.

 

 

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