South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation in April 2016 and Projection for May-July 2016
VALIDITY PERIOD
01.04.2016 > 31.07.2016

Key
results


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


The overall food and nutrition security situation has deteriorated in many parts of the country with an estimated 4.3 million people in Phases 3, 4 & 5  in April 2016, a significant increase from the 2.8 million people in January–March 2016 projection.

This population is also a significant increase when compared to the 3.8 million people that faced severe food insecurity in April 2015. According to the normal ‘lean season’ pattern, the situation is expected to deteriorate further during the May–July 2016 lean season with an estimated 4.8 million people being severely food insecure.  The current deterioration in food security and nutrition is primarily due to physical insecurity, the effects of the economic crisis and depleted stocks from the last harvest.

The worst affected population is likely to include the displaced, returning households and the low income earners who are characterized by minimal assets and low purchasing power to satisfy their food needs. Approximately 300,000 people are the urban poor/food insecure located in Juba, Wau and Aweil towns. In the current analysis, approximately 350,000 people in Protection of Civilians [PoC] and IDP camps are excluded because they are classified in Phase 2 although their survival depends on regular humanitarian assistance. 

As the Peace Agreement is implemented and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) starts functioning in earnest, it is expected that the physical security situation will gradually improve within the projection period (May–July 2016). This will have some positive impact on markets, livelihoods and humanitarian space. However, despite these limited gains the food security and nutrition situation between May and July 2016 will continue to be affected negatively due to the economic crisis, high food prices, pockets of insecurity and restrictions on movement as roads become impassable during the rainy season. Notwithstanding scaled up humanitarian assistance, the risk of famine cannot be ruled out in parts of former Unity state and the Greater Bahr el Ghazal region where some food security and nutrition indicators were within the Phase 5 thresholds during the analysis. The current monitoring system will be maintained and measures for real time access to areas at risk will be strengthened.


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