South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation July - August 2013 and Projection for July - October 2013
VALIDITY PERIOD
30.07.2013 > 30.10.2013
 
 
 
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Key
results


Population
estimates


Recommendations
& next steps


Acute
Malnutrition


The current IPC outlook map for South Sudan shows improved food security conditions, as compared to same period last year (2012). About 46% of the population is estimated to be in minimal or none food insecurity situation (IPC Phase 1); while about 36% is in stress conditions (IPC Phase 2). About 30% (497,748) of Jonglei State and 24% (384,003) of Unity State populations are in IPC v2.0 phase 3 or higher. As a result, Jonglei and Unity are the most affected States. Likewise, according to June 2013 Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS), about 8% and 34% of households are severely and moderately food insecure respectively. Similarly, MUAC malnutrition rates for Jonglei, Unity, Warrap and Lakes States range from serious (14%) to critical (21%) levels. In nutshell, over 1.6 million South Sudanese are in phase 3 (crisis) or above.

In Jonglei State, the four Counties of Uror, Akobo, Nyirol and Pibor are in crisis food security conditions (IPC v2.0 phase 3!). For instance, Pibor County; which has become the center of insecurity in Jonglei, continuous to experience massive population displacement; with about 100,000 inhabitants reportedly cut-off from livesaving services. However, the other 7 Counties in the state are in stress food security situation but are tentatively expected to improve after the harvest season in October 2013. In Upper Nile State, the four counties of Fashoda, Melut, Renk and Manyo are in minimal or none food insecurity conditions while the remaining 8 counties are in stress conditions. Similarly, Unity State has all of its counties in stress food security conditions with Pariang County receiving humanitarian assistance. Likewise, the population in all the counties of Greater Bahr el Ghazal Region; which includes the states of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Western Bahr el Ghazal and Lakes are in ‘stress’ food security conditions. Twic County, in Warrap State is currently receiving humanitarian assistance.

Meanwhile, the Greater Equatoria Region, continues to show improved food security conditions as compared to the other two regions mentioned above. In Western Equatoria state, all the counties except Mundri East and West are in minimal or none food insecurity conditions. In the same token, in Central Equatoria state, Terkeka and Juba counties are in stress food insecurity conditions. The remaining four counties of Central Equatoria (Yei, Kajo Keji, Morobo and Lainya) are in minimal or none food insecurity conditions. In Eastern Equatoria, Lafon/Lopa and the Greater Kapoeta counties are in stress while the rest of the counties that include Torit , Budi, Ikotos and Magwi are in minimal or none food insecurity (phase 1.)

Key results for projection period

The projected acute food insecurity IPC outlook map generated during the second quarter of the Livelihoods Analysis Forum meeting held in Juba from 25th to 29th July 2013 revealed an improved food security conditions throughout South Sudan. About 49% of the population is expected to be in none or minimal food insecurity  (IPC Phase 1) and another 31% are expected to be in stress food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). However, the continuous civil insecurity situation in Jonglei State will continue to have significant negative effects on the population; especially those in Pibor County; who will remain in crisis level food insecurity (Phase 3) for the foreseeable future. About 55% (968,606) of Jonglei State and 44% (407,618) of Unity State populations are expected to be in IPC v2.0 phase 3 or higher. As a result, about 2 million South Sudanese are expected to be in phase 3 (crisis) or above. A number of drivers blamed for the situation include poor road access, lack of market access, civil insecurity, cattle rustling, localized dry spells and expected oil shut down.

Greater Equatoria Region: Based on most likely scenarios, the food insecurity situation of the population in the three states (WES, CES and EES) of the region, as compared to the same period last year is expected to remain the same. All the counties will remain in none or minimal food insecurity except Terkeka in Central Equatroria and Greater Kapoeta (Kapoeta North, South and East) in Eastern Equatoria state, which are expected to be in stress conditions. Dry spells, erratic rains and high market prices are the expected causal factors for the food insecurity situation in these areas.

Greater Bahr el Ghazal Region: In this region all the three counties of Western Bahr el Ghazal state are expected to be in minimal or none food insecurity conditions. While in NBEG state, only Aweil Centre County is expected to be in minimal or none, while the remaining 4 counties are expected to be in stress conditions. Whereas for Warap and Lakes states, 9 counties in both states are likely to be in stress food security conditions with only 5 counties in minimal or none food insecurity conditions. However, this region is expected to show improved food security conditions compared to the same period last year (2012).

Greater Upper Nile: In Greater Upper Nile, Upper Nile state is expected to perform better than Unity and Jonglei States where a total of 5 counties are expected to be in minimal or none and another 4 counties likely to be in stress food insecurity conditions. In Unity State more than half of the counties are expected to be in minimal or none food insecurity conditions while 4 counties are expected to be in stress conditions. However, 9 counties in Jonglei state are expected to be stress food security conditions, while Pibor County, where civil insecurity has resulted in massive population displacements. Pibor County will likely remain in crisis conditions and hence continue requiring continued humanitarian assistance. Finally, States bordering Sudan are expected to continuing facing intensified border upheavals due to constant incursion to border areas of South Sudan by Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in pursue of rebels who remain active along the border with South Sudan.

 


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