On 23 September 2014, the Minister of Agriculture of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan formally endorsed the latest IPC analysis for South Sudan, which included a projection of the country’s food security situation until March 2015.

The food security projections for January to March 2015 have now been updated and are included in the attached report. In September 2014, the South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group projected that 2.5 million people would face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity levels between January and March 2015. This latest IPC Update confirms the earlier projection, but the distribution of food insecurity across the country has shifted.

Approximately 40 participants from governmental, NGO, and UN agencies met in December 2014 to conduct the update. Participants were drawn from all 10 states and reviewed livelihoods, food security, and hazards assessment reports collected between September 2014 and November 2014. The IPC Technical Working Group validated and finalized the technical details of the updated projections.

The information in the previous September comprehensive analysis remains valid for the most part. This includes population estimates for the various IPC Phase classifications. Therefore, the December 2014 Update does not include new analysis but is solely an update on projections for January to March 2015.

For the population estimates relative to this projection period, please consult the September 2014 IPC Analysis of South Sudan available here.

The January to March dry season provides a short window of opportunity to ramp up humanitarian efforts in the Greater Upper Nile in preparation for the lean and wet period. This is extremely important in order to prevent thousands of vulnerable households from slipping further into food insecurity as they deplete their food stocks and run out of livelihoods options. In order to prevent a dramatic increase in food insecurity and malnutrition in 2015, immediate actions should include scaling up humanitarian assistance, including nutrition and livelihood interventions, ensuring safe movement of large volumes of food stocks, and most importantly, securing a peaceful solution to the ongoing political crisis.