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South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation in September 2018 and Projections for October-December 2018 and January-March 2019
01.09.2018 > 31.03.2019




September 2018 
October-December 2018 
Juanary-March 2019 



& next steps


  • Based on the September IPC analysis, it is expected that 6.1 million people (59% of the total population) faced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity at the peak of the lean season (July – August), of whom 47,000 were in Catastrophe (IPC phase 5) and 1.7 million were in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Food security has improved slightly with the green harvest in September relative to July and August, and further improvements are expected in the post-harvest period between October and December 2018 when the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse is most likely to reduce to 4.4 million (43% of the total population), with 26,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
  • However, an anticipated earlier than normal start of the lean season will result in an estimated 5.2 million (49% of the total population) people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity between January and March 2019, with 36,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). These estimates are in the presence of planned humanitarian food assistances.
  • In September 2018, it is expected populations are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Leer and Mayendit (former Unity state), Yirol East and Yirol West (former Lakes state), Canal/ Pigi (former Jonglei state), Panyikang (former Upper Nile state), and Greater Baggari in Wau (former Western Bahr El Ghazal state).
  • In October - December 2018, Catastrophe (IPC phase 5) outcomes are expected in Leer and Mayendit (former Unity state), Pibor (former Jonglei state), Panyikang (fomer Upper Nile state) and Greater Baggari in Wau (former Western Bahr El Ghazal state).
  • In January - March 2019, Catastrophe is expected in Pibor and Canal/ Pigi (former Jonglei state) and Leer and Mayendit (former Unity state).
  • Of greatest concern are counties where harvests are likely to be poor; access to humanitarian assistance may be limited for a section of the population; possible returns from within and outside of the country may cause further pressure on already scarce resources; insecurity, lack of freedom of movement and extreme depletion of livelihoods prevails. As a result, extreme levels of acute food insecurity are expected to persist in many areas. This calls for immediate and unhindered provision of humanitarian assistance and close monitoring.
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