An estimated 3.9 million people (3.1 million in Crisis and 800,000 in Emergency) or 34% of the population are classified as severely food and nutrition insecure and are unable to meet their food needs in September. This is an 80% increase compared to the same period last year. Of extreme concern are the estimated 30,000 people in Unity State who are experiencing Catastrophe and are likely to deteriorate into famine in the absence of urgent and immediate humanitarian access.

Although the August-September period typically marks the start of green harvests and reflects an improving situation from the peak-lean season, the long-term effects of the conflict coupled with high food prices, erratic rainfall patterns, depleted livelihood options and limited humanitarian access continue to put pressure on households’ food security affecting not only the Greater Upper Nile States, but also extending to traditionally stable states like Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap and the Greater Equatoria States.

For the first time in the IPC history of South Sudan large deterioration can be seen in the Greater Equatoria region due to a combination of factors: market disruption, economic downturn, insecurity and localized crop failures.

The economic downturn has resulted in record high food prices (up to 150% compared to average) which has significantly affected the purchasing power of households across the country with significant effects being felt in Greater Bahr el-Ghazal States and the Urban-Poor population (30% in IPC Phase 3 and 4). 

Conflict continues to have a profound impact on livelihoods. In Unity and Upper Nile States conflict continues to be a major driver of food insecurity through population displacements.

As the harvest season progresses (October to December), the food security situation is expected to progressively improve as households will have greater access to own production and income from crop sales.

The overall nutrition situation in August-September remains Critical with GAM prevalence above the Emergency threshold (GAM >15%) in the conflict affected states of the Greater Upper Nile region (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States) and the perennially high malnutrition prevalence in the states of Northern Bahr el-Ghazal and Warrap. 

Population estimates for August-September 2015

Population estimates for October-December 2015 Projection

Population estimates for January-March 2016 Projection

The IPC South Sudan TWG requests urgent support for immediate access to these worst-affected areas, specifically Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit counties, for rapid assessments.