Key results for May 2014

Overall, there are over 3.5 million people (30% of the total population) in crisis or emergency food insecurity phases (IPC Phases 3 and 4). This is about 115% increase compared to the same time last year. However, the food insecurity situation varies widely from State to State, with the three most conflict-affected States (Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity) currently in more precarious food insecurity conditions as compared to the other seven States in South Sudan. For instance, data from Emergency Food Security Assessments (EFSA, April 2014), indicates that about 35%, 26% and 23% of households (HHs) in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity respectively have large food consumption gaps. Similarly, 58%, 40% and 19% of HHs in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile respectively have adopted crisis coping strategies. A trend analysis of malnutrition (MUAC) data from 2010-2013 indicates average prevailing rates of malnutrition of about 17% and 18% in Upper Nile and Jonglei respectively. Unfortunately, mortality data is almost non-existent.

Based on the percentage (%) of HHs in emergency phase, the following counties are of concern. (1) Unity: Mayendit, Panyijar, Mayom, Leer and Koch. (2) Jonglei: Uror, Nyirol, Duk, Akobo (west) and Ayod. (3) Upper Nile: Baliet/Akoka, Malakal, Panyikang and Nasir. These three states account for about 2 million people (57% of the total population) who are in crisis and emergency phases. The remaining 1.5 million people (about 43% of the population) in crisis or emergency phases are broken down as follows: Northern Bahr el Ghazal (14%), Lakes (7%), Warrap (7%), Eastern Equatoria (5%), Western Bahr el Ghazal (4%), Western Equatoria (3%), and Central Equatoria (3%).

Delivery of humanitarian assistance is ongoing as follows (1) Jonglei: Ayod, Nyirol, Uror, Duk, Walgak, Fangak, Pochalla, and Pibor. (2) Unity: Panyijar, Mayom, Mayendit and Leer. (3) Upper Nile: Pagak, Nasir, Ulang, Mabior and Malakal. At the moment, without humanitarian assistance, IDPs are more likely to slip into a worse phase.

While a number of counties in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile are in emergency, the situation is of particular concern in Uror, Nyirol and Ayod counties in Jonglei; Panyijar, Leer and Mayendit in Unity State. Geographically, a number of these counties are located in the interior of their respective States and potentially suffer from serious access constraints and hence restricted population movements.

Key results in the June - August 2014 Projection period

Overall, about 3.9 million people (34% of the total population) are projected to be in crisis or emergency food insecurity levels during June through August 2014. This is approximately a 10% increase compared to the population under the current levels (May 2014). The three most affected States of Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity will continue accounting for about 56% of the total population in crisis and emergency phases (over 2.2 million people). The other 44% (about 1.8 million people) are contributed by the other seven (7) states as follows: Northern Bahr el Ghazal (13%), Lakes (9%), Warrap (6%), Eastern Equatoria (5%), Western Bahr el Ghazal (4%), Central Equatoria (4%) and Western Equatoria (3%).

During the period of June to August 2014, the food insecurity situation is expected to further deteriorate; particularly for the three (3) most affected states. However, increases in milk, wild foods and fish during June through August are expected to sustain and hence trap affected populations in the emergency phase. This will be further supplemented by the onset of green harvests of maize, sorghum, pumpkins and vegetables during August, even with reduced cultivation. Similarly, the latest informal reports indicate that there is significant security-related population movements (described as migration); particularly from central Jonglei and eastern Upper Nile (Nasir and Ulang) into Ethiopia, where the security situation is more stable. Another possibility of the population movements is that it is more difficult to move when the rainy season starts in June.

A number of Counties in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile that are currently in emergency phase will continue being areas of concern. Based on the percentages of HHs in emergency (phase 4), the following counties will need to be monitored more carefully: Uror, Nyirol and Ayod counties in Jonglei and Panyijar, Leer and Mayendit Counties in Unity State. Geographically, many of these counties are located in the interior of their respective states and potentially suffer from serious access constraints and hence restricted population movements.

Experience has shown that the combination of conflict and drought is more likely to cause a famine in South Sudan. Therefore, if the current rainfall expectation continues as predicted (normal to above normal), the chances of famine occurring will be reduced even further. Consequently, the SS IPC TWG will be diligently monitoring the rainfall performance for the next few months. Although no Counties/areas are expected to slip into phase 5 (famine) during the projected period, the TWG will also be keenly monitoring the food security situation of the most vulnerable HHs in the most affected areas; especially Counties where more than 30% of its population was in phase 4 in May 2014. Similarly, without sustained humanitarian assistance, IDPs are more likely (than any other group) to slip into a worse phase. 

May 2014 Population estimates

Population estimates for June - August 2014 projection

The IPC Technical Working Group issued the following recommendations:

• Urgently ensure that nutrition, mortality and morbidity data needed for the IPC are being consistently collected; particularly for Counties of major concern.
• Urgently establish a standard procedure for calculating food insecure population using consistent and comparable data across South Sudan.
• Urgently update the FSL Cluster Assessment Strategy and inter-agency implementation to closely monitor the Counties of major concern – mainly through EFSAs.
• Urgently engage with and raise awareness among key government decision-makers; Min of Agric, Food Security Council (FSC) and NBS/FSTS…alignments needed.
• Ensure that our EFSA, FSMS, CFSAM and other assessment/analysis tools and exercises are better timed and aligned with indicators in the IPC Reference Tables.
• Improve and further guide the decentralized State IPC analysis process – to capture local knowledge on the dynamics of acute food insecurity and improve data collection at both County and Payam levels. Ensure State analysts are trained in IPC analysis; particularly IPC Level I Training.
• Standardize and harmonize the data collected by different partners. The coordination mechanism should clearly identify and set the timing and geographic areas for the data collection; particularly at County levels.
• Given the fluidity of the food insecurity situation in South Sudan, ensure that the IPC results are reviewed and updated in July 2014 for Counties of concern