The current food insecurity IPC analysis results for August 2012 showed that the four states of Western, Central and Eastern Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal are in minimal or none food insecurity (phase 1) with about 21% of the population in these states in food secure situation, however there are pockets in the four mentioned states experiencing food insecurity and are in stress (phase 2). They include Kapoeta East and North in Eastern Equatoria and Kafiakingi and Wau in Western Bahr el Ghazal State. The situation in Wau would have been in crises (phase 3) without humanitarian intervention.

Based on most likely scenarios, the projected trend of the food insecurity situation for the August - November 2012 period in four states of Western, Central and Eastern Equatoria and the Western Bahr el Ghazal state and Renk mechanized scheme are expected to remain in none or minimal food insecurity (Phase1). However pockets in Eastern Equatoria that include Kapoeta North and East counties, Wau county and kafiakingi in Raja county in Western Bahr el Ghazal state are in stress (phase2). 

The remaining six states of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, Upper Nile, Lakes, Warrap, and Jonglei are in stress (phase 2) with pockets in crises. The areas in crises to be watched are Aweil East and North counties in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State, Pariang county in Unity state, Maban in Upper Nile state and the areas of Pierri, Nyandit, Lekuangole, Duk, Ayod and Nyirol are in crises and most of these areas would have been in emergency (phase 4) without any humanitarian intervention. The causal agents for the situation are conflicts ranging from civil insecurity to cattle rustling, the effects of the devastating floods, Delay in payment of salaried workers and high prices and high concentration of refugees and IDPs.

Should the situation remain as projected, 60% of the population in the country is expected to be in minimal or none food insecurity (Phase 1), 29% in stress (Phase 2) and 11% in crises (Phase 3).

 The factors blamed for the stress situation in the overview for August 2012 are:

• High inflation and the Government austerity measures impacted more on salaried workers
• Floods worsening physical access and damaging crops
• Insufficient rains in Kapoeta East and North
• High concentration of IDPs and returnees

While the rest of the 6 states are in stress (Phase 2) exception of Northern Bahr el Ghazal state and pockets in Unity state that include Pariang, Abiemnhom, Leer and Mayom counties and Pierri, Nyandit, Likuangole and Gumuruk payams in Jonglei state in addition to Maban county in Upper Nile state are in crises (Phase 3) with a population of about 13.6% within these states affected. The food insecurity situation in the areas of Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Pariang, Maban, and Pierri would have been in emergency (phase 4) without humanitarian assistance.

The overall causes and key issues of the crises phase in August 2012 are:

• Insecurity at the border areas with Sudan and in Jonglei state
• Border blockade with Sudan
• High inflation 73% resulting to high market prices
• Intertribal conflicts resulting from cattle rustling
• High concentration of refugees at Yida, Maban and Aweil Centre
• Floods worsening physical access and damaging crops

In conclusion close to one million people are in crisis (Phase 3), 2.2 million in stress (Phase 2) and majority of 5.8 million are in minimal or no food insecurity (Phase 1).

The favorable drivers for improvement of the situation in the August - November 2012 period are:

• the average to above average rainfall according to GHA climate outlook that will favor the second season crops in the greater Equatoria 
• improved production of the less cropped Renk agricultural scheme
• cereal prices are likely to decline following the start of the second harvest 
• tension in border areas with Sudan is likely to go down following the encouraging signs in improvement of relationship between the two countries
• likely reduction in the inflation rate with prospects for resumption of the oil production

• The Technical Working Group is discussing the possibility of each state doing its analysis guided by the TWG group in Juba and thereafter the National analysis will consolidate on the state products in order to produce the National IPC products. This also enables the state cluster members to be fully involved in the analysis at state level and hence the National analysis will require only the IPC focal persons and few cluster members to validate their products which are then merged to a National IPC analysis outcome product.
• More data up to Payam level will be required if the products are to suit the users demand.
• Updating the livelihood zones in South Sudan is paramount for improvement of the IPC products.
• Regular training of the new IPC focal persons and new cluster members is required to enable them improve their analysis and monitoring skills.