Between July and September 2026 in 46 predominantly productive districts of Mozambique, an estimated 1.19 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian assistance to reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods. Of these, approximately 81,000 people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while approximaltey 1.1 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The current situation is driven by multiple shocks earlier in the year: flooding and Cyclone Gezani damaged crops, livestock and seasonal food sources, while prolonged heat limited agricultural recovery and reduced pasture and water availability. In Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, conflict displaced over 27,000 people, disrupting livelihoods and access to markets and essential services. At the same time, persistently high staple food prices, rising fuel and transport costs, inflation and reduced purchasing power continue to constrain household access to food.

Food security conditions are expected to worsen rapidly with the onset of the lean season, with approximately 1.84 million people likely to face Crisis or worse (Phase 3 or above) acute food insecurity from October 2026 to March 2027. The number of people projected to be in AFI Phase 4 conditions is likely to more than triple, affecting an estimated 254,000 people. This anticipated deterioration reflects the combined effects of depleted household food stocks, ongoing conflict in northern Mozambique, and the expected impacts of El Niño in southern and central areas, compounded by previous shocks and ongoing displacement.

• Strengthen the resilience of internally displaced people by providing agricultural production support while maintaining humanitarian food assistance.
• Increase access to safe water during the projected period through the provision of water storage capacity, given the forecast of below-normal rainfall.
• Continue livelihood support programmes, including agricultural, livestock and fisheries input packages, to reduce dependence on humanitarian food assistance.
• Ensure the availability of agricultural and fisheries inputs in local markets.
• Intensify monitoring and technical assistance for the prevention and control of pests and diseases affecting crops and livestock.
• Support market access for the sale of agricultural surpluses and fisheries products.
• Promote adaptation and resilience measures for communities likely to be affected by El Niño.