More than 20% of households in the south and central provinces of the country, except Maputo province and city, Nampula, Niassa and Cabo Delgado are classified in IPC Phase 3 (crisis) requiring urgent assistance to protect their livelihoods and alleviating deficit of food consumption as well as, in some areas, to reduce acute malnutrition levels. 

In addition, about 8% of the population in Manica, 6% in Maputo Province and 4% in Tete, Sofala, Zambezia and Inhambane provinces have extreme food deficits thus indicating IPC Phase 4. The percentage of households in IPC phase 4 are those who may have lost all the harvest; do not have any animals; do not have other significant sources of income and those related to agricultural activities.

Slight improvement in current acute food insecurity - July-September 2016

Central and south of the country: About 23 and 56% of households are facing a minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). These are families who harvested some crops and have livestock and other assets that can be sold in a sustainable way. About 30-50% of households are expected to be suffering from stress and instability (IPC Phase 2), but able to consume enough food with low use of sustainable livelihood strategies. 20-39% are classified to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially Gaza with the highest percentage in this phase (39%) and 3-9% of households in phase 4.

North of the country: about 81% of households in Niassa Province and 85% in Cabo Delgado province are facing a minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). Households in these provinces had good crops of cereals and tubers, animals and other assets that can be sold in a sustainable way. In Nampula province, about 71% of the population are also in Phase 1 and 23% is in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Projected deterioration for the period from October 2016 to March 2017

The seasonal calendar indicates that the period from November to February of each year is characterized by food shortage, depletion of food reserves, raising prices and households’ high dependency on the market. The effects of this El Niño on food security will mainly be felt from October 2016, thus affecting green crops scheduled for March 2017.

Therefore, it is expected that the situation will deteriorate due to the limited second season crops, even in areas expecting adequate rainfall. Given the excessive price increases in the last 12 months, when prices were already 100-150% higher than normal, it is expected that prices will continue to increase, especially the price of corn. Thus, the situation between November 2016 and February 2017 will be worse than the situation in March 2016.

For this period, it is estimated that 19% of populations in some areas of Gaza province will be likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 13% in Tete and 12% in Sofala, which are the most affected. Households in these provinces are expected to: not have food reserves; have no or very limited access to other sources of income; have sold animals or not have animals to sell; likely increase the consumption of wild foods and engage in unsustainable livelihood activities, such as selling charcoal.

<>Main driving factors for analyzed and projected period:

• food shortage
• depletion of food reserves
• rising prices and high dependency on the market
• limited second season crops (due to the effects of El Niño)
• lack of animals to sell or raise

For about 3-9% of the population classified in IPC Phase 4 in the country's most affected areas, it is recommended that the government and partners should urgently provide humanitarian aid to prevent the loss of subsistence and severe acute malnutrition. Given the high levels of acute food insecurity faced by these populations, the interventions are highly urgent to alleviate the current gaps in consumption. Relief activities should be complemented by increased resilience of these families to adapt to climate change, such as diversification of livelihoods, advanced education, livestock and fishing, among others.

For the 20-39% of the population classified in IPC Phase 3 in the provinces of Gaza, Inhambane, Tete, Zambézia and Sofala in the current and projected period, it is recommended that the government and partners provide humanitarian assistance to protect their livelihoods and loss of goods, reduce gaps in consuption. In Tete, Manica and Sofala interventions should also focus on reducing acute malnutrition. 

Relief activities should be complemented by activities to increase the resilience of these families to climate change, mentioned in the paragraph above.

For the estimated 30-50% of people in the IPC Phase 2 in the provinces of Maputo and Nampula, between the current and the final period of the projection, it is recommended that government and partners implement activities aimed at increasing the resilience of these households. However, these activities have lower priority than those required for families in emergency and crisis situations (IPC Phase 3 and 4).

Recommendations for next steps in the analysis

It is recommended that the government and the partners actively collaborate with the human and financial resources to support the collection of primary data, with coordination and implementation by SETSAN with partner support, sustainable storage of historical data by SETSAN, as well as training of provincial and national personnel in the analysis of food insecurity using IPC.