Between April and June 2026, an estimated 2.5 million people (14 percent of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of these, more than 2.3 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 120,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Although this represents an improvement compared with the same period in 2025, depleted food stocks and high food prices continue to limit food access for many households. 

The situation is expected to deteriorate in the first projection period (July–September 2026), in line with the lean season and anticipated impacts of El Niño. Around 3.2 million people (17 percent of the population) are projected to face Phase 3 or above, including 197,000 in Phase 4.

A moderate improvement is projected between October 2026 and February 2027, with around 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population) likely to face Phase 3 or above, including nearly 146,000 people in Phase 4. End-of-year harvests, increased remittance inflows, and greater availability of seasonal agricultural employment are likely to improve the situation.

• Scale up and better target food assistance and social protection programmes to populations in IPC Phase 3 or above, ensuring complementarity between government and humanitarian interventions.
• Expand and optimise the targeting of social protection programmes, prioritising households in Phase 3 or above.
• Strengthen the coverage and timeliness of interventions targeting households with children under five years of age affected by acute malnutrition, ensuring the integration of food assistance, health services and nutrition monitoring.
• Strengthen interventions to protect and restore agricultural livelihoods, particularly for smallholder farmers affected by rising production costs (including agricultural inputs, fertilisers and fuel). This should include improving access to agricultural inputs, technical assistance and productive support mechanisms, with a particular focus on areas highly dependent on subsistence agriculture.
• Scale up water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), health and nutrition interventions, particularly in highly vulnerable areas, to address the underlying factors that exacerbate acute food insecurity.
• For areas with households classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), prioritise the immediate provision of emergency food assistance to save lives, protect livelihoods and prevent further deterioration.