Between May and August 2025, an estimated 3.4 million people—equivalent to 19 percent of Guatemala’s population—faced high levels of Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This figure represents around 400,000 more people compared to the same period in 2024. Eleven of the 22 departments analysed were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), notably Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango and Quiché.

For the first projection period, September 2025 to January 2026, a relative improvement is expected, with around 2.6 million people (14 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 2.4 million in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 185,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a 5 percent reduction compared with the previous period, attributed to improved food availability in some areas.

However, for the second projection period, February to April 2026, a deterioration is anticipated, with about 3 million people (16 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 or above. Of this total, around 2.8 million would remain in Phase 3 (Crisis) and more than 248,000 in Phase 4 (Emergency), reflecting the persistence of structural factors that continue to undermine food security.

• Present results to CONASAN: Share the report of the acute food insecurity analysis with the National Food and Nutrition Security Council (CONASAN) to ensure intersectoral review, strengthen institutional coordination, and activate multisectoral response strategies according to the severity identified.
• Expand food assistance coverage: The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food (MAGA) should increase the coverage of assistance provided to households facing food and nutrition insecurity.
• Facilitate humanitarian interventions: The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) should promote actions targeting populations in IPC Phase 3 or above, including food distribution, medical care, and water and sanitation services, in coordination with local actors to ensure cultural relevance and avoid duplication of efforts.
• Conduct chronic food insecurity analysis: Carry out an analysis focused on Chronic Food Insecurity, applying the new Protracted Crisis Classification protocol and integrating regular programmes such as Bono Salud, Bono Educación, Beca Artesano, Agricultural Insurance, Crédito Tob’anik, Bono Campesino and Bono del Adulto Mayor.