Overview

Between December 2019 and March 2020, 850,000 people in the rural areas of Guatemala are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 197,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), in total around 1.05 million people, and require urgent action. This total will likely increase to over 1.32 million between April and July 2020. Until March 2020, the departments classified in Phase 3 (Crisis) are Alta Verapaz, Chiquimula and Suchitepéquez. From April to July 2020, the departments of Baja Verapaz, Huehuetenango, Quiché and Retalhuleu are also classified in Phase 3.

The most vulnerable households in the rural areas are mainly subsistence farmers, who are experiencing a Phase 2 (Stress) food insecurity situation, manifested through poor food consumption caused by the decline in their stocks of basic grains. However, this situation may improve at the end of the current period. Household food access will improve due to the onset of the basic grain harvest from the western region, the late harvest from the eastern region, the basic grain harvest from the northern region and the beginning of the demand for labor, particularly for coffee cutting, an important crop in some departments, and whose production remains at average levels, similar to those of 2018.  These two events improve food availability and access in the current period.

Key Drivers

Among the main causal factors contributing to the acute food insecurity of these households are the recent crop losses and the low remuneration received by families engaged in wage labour and/or agricultural labour, which is sufficient to cover the cost of the Basic Food Basket. In the last year, the prices of white corn, mainly for rural families, have remained above the average of the last five years, which has limited access to other services, such as health care, education and housing, among others. This situation has forced families to implement different negative coping strategies that have allowed them to alleviate these adverse conditions. However, in the current period, the demand for labour is starting, which will help families to generate income, making access to food possible to some extent.

Response Priorities

Populations and municipalities where a greater proportion of the households have exhausted their stocks and are likely to be employing Crisis or Emergency coping strategies should be identified and prioritised. For the short term, urgent food and other aid interventions and actions defined in the Government's Action Plans should be carried out, in coordination with national and international actors and institutions.

Priority response objectives should be directed at protecting livelihoods and reducing household food consumption gaps in Phases 3 and 4, and continuing with risk reduction and livelihood protection actions. Specific response actions will be defined with local, municipal and commonwealth actors, programmes and projects, for the short term.

Situation Monitoring and Update

• Present the results and template of the analysis to the National Council for Food and Nutritional Security (CONASAN), local governments and partners for their knowledge, validation and implementation.  
• It is recommended that through CONASAN, a proposal for an immediate response is developed to reduce consumption gaps among populations in Phases 3 and 4, in order to save lives. 
• It is suggested that through CONASAN, a medium-term work proposal is prepared aimed at protecting the livelihoods of the population in Phases 2, 3 and 4, as a risk mitigation and prevention measure from prolonging the food crisis.
• For future analysis, other IPC global partners should be invited to participate, such as FAO, UNICEF, Save the Children and OXFAM; as well as other key institutions at the national level, in order to seek their involvement in the actions derived from the presentation of the analysis.
• Continue with the monitoring and follow-up of outcome indicators (mainly on food consumption and changes in livelihoods at the household level), seeking to ensure availability of recent information for the next IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis in 2020, adjustment and calibration of the indicators of livelihood change and monitoring of the assumptions used for the projection classification.

Risk factors to monitor

The following key risk factors need to be monitored: climate changes, price trends, stocks of basic grains (mainly maize and beans), mobilization between departments, loss of agricultural jobs, and diarrheal and vector-borne diseases. The evolution of these factors could generate the need to update the analysis at the end of the first semester of 2020.