In the analysed areas of the Grand South and Grand South-East, the nutritional situation remains fragile. Between May 2026 and April 2027, approximately 502,000 children under the age of five are suffering or likely to suffer acute malnutrition. Among them, an estimated 78,000 children are expected to suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). During the same period, 20,834 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition.

Between May and September 2026, the situation will improve compared to the previous period, supported by recent harvests, some local food availability, and ongoing nutrition and health interventions. However, this easing remains limited: the majority of districts are classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert), while Betroka is the main hotspot of severity in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious). 

In the first projection period (October 2026–January 2027), the situation is expected to progressively deteriorate in several districts in the Grand South. Between February and April 2027, the situation will likely remain concerning, with an increased concentration of districts in IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3, driven by the peak of the lean season, high prices, rainfall deficits in the south, isolation in the southeast, and constraints in accessing health, nutrition, and WASH services.

Strengthen prevention, screening, and treatment of acute malnutrition: Intensify interventions among children under five and pregnant or breastfeeding women. Priorities include early screening, active community screening, rapid referral, integrated management of acute malnutrition and childhood illnesses, and continuous availability of nutrition inputs, essential medicines, and monitoring tools. 

Strengthen WASH interventions: Prioritise water‑point treatment and protection, chlorination, distribution of hygiene kits, promotion of good hygiene practices, improved sanitation access, and prevention of waterborne diseases.

Prevent collapse of assistance coverage: The projected decline in assistance coverage is a major risk. Rapidly secure additional and flexible funding to maintain life‑saving interventions in priority districts. Funding must simultaneously cover nutrition, health and WASH. Without strengthened resources, gains achieved during the current period risk being quickly reversed during the lean season and rainy season.

Strengthen early warning systems: Intensify nutrition surveillance, jointly tracking SMART survey data, input shortages, child morbidity, WASH indicators, community alerts, and mortality data when available. Early detection of malnutrition hotspots and epidemics must be strengthened to enable rapid response.