In the current period (May-September 2024), 12 percent of the rural population in the 36 districts analysed, or 1.22 million people, are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). The most affected districts are Ambovombe Androy and Amboasary Atsimo.

Since the end of 2023, significant humanitarian and development deployments for response, rehabilitation, and anticipatory actions in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est regions have led to a notable improvement in food security compared to the analysis projected in December 2023. However, this improvement is threatened by the effects of the El Niño, floods, cyclones, and other economic (price shocks) and structural (degraded road and health infrastructure) factors.

For the first projected period (October-December 2024), approximately 1.32 million people, or 13 percent of the population in the analysed areas, are expected to face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above).

For the second projected period (January-April 2025), a more pronounced deterioration in food security is anticipated. Approximately 1.78 million people, or 17 percent of the population in the analysed areas, will likely need urgent action. The most affected districts will include at least 20 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3 or above, encompassing all districts in the Androy region, Betioky Atsimo, Benenitra, Sakaraha, and Ampanihy Ouest in the Grand Sud, as well as districts in Atsimo Atsinanana, Vatovavy, and Fitovinany in the Grand Sud-Est, with a high probability of cyclones and floods.

Immediate and short-term:

• Provide rapid food assistance to vulnerable households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to address food deficits and save lives.
• Address acute malnutrition cases in Crisis districts.
• Support off-season crop initiation by supplying quality seeds and tools, and offer climate-adapted technical guidance.
• Control locust populations in the Grand Sud and prepare for an emergency locust response.
• Maintain and strengthen humanitarian efforts in Ambovombe Androy and Amboasary Atsimo during the current analysis period (May to September 2024).
• Enhance coordination between humanitarian and development actors for more effective responses.

Medium-term:

• Prepare for the upcoming major agricultural season by ensuring the provision of agricultural inputs and technical support tailored to address the challenges of climate change.
• Support livelihood resilience.
• Protect and restore household assets in districts facing Stress or Crisis by recapitalizing livestock and diversifying productive assets.
• Promote income diversification and local product processing to improve resilience and food access.
• Advance proactive measures and update humanitarian plans to prevent deteriorating conditions in districts currently in Stress (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity situation.