The period from August to October 2017 coincides with the harvest period but also at the beginning of the lean season especially for the households in phase 4 and 3. Because of insufficient food production that remains below the average of the last 5 years, the situation has slightly deteriorated in the Great South compared to the period from March to June 2017. However, compared to the post-harvest period of 2016, a note-worthy improvement in the situation is recorded. A slight increase in the order of 10% of households in phase 3 and 4 was found. The percentage of population in phase 3 has increased from 26% to 35% while that of households in phase 4 has increased from 8% to 10%.

For the South East, the situation is quite mixed if we compare the period August to October 2017 to the period from March to June 2017. The percentage of populations in phase 3 and 4 increased from 37% to 41%. However, an improvement is noted for the Vohipeno and Manakara districts while degradation is recorded for Farafangana and Vangaindrano Districts. Indeed, for these two Districts, the proportion of population ranked in phase 3 increased by 20% for Farafangana and 15% for Vangaindrano. Also, the number of people in need of urgent action to protect their livelihoods and reduce food deficits from August to October 2017 reaches 1,289,171 people differently distributed across the analysis zones.

The majority of food consumption and livelihoods indicators show the persistence of the crisis and the increase in the proportion of households in the CPI crisis (3) and emergency (4) phase.

The interruption of humanitarian aid since June 2017, the low food availability expected during the lean, access problems, Seasonal inflation, combined with water problems (access, quality and use) contribute to the degradation of the nutritional situation of children. And trends show that the peak of malnutrition is reached around February-March, hence the need to strengthen nutritional surveillance.

Thus, for the projected period from November 2017 to March 2018, without any palliative measure, an increase in the population in phase 3 and 4 would be expected. More specifically, 1,630,000 people, or 54% of the population in the analysis areas, will require urgent action to protect their livelihoods, reduce their food deficits and the prevalence of acute malnutrition. For the Great South, the situation is likely to deteriorate further if no action is taken already for the preparation of the off-season and the accompaniment of the peasants in the start of the agricultural campaign.

General recommendations:

• Communicate to the actors of the Great South and Great South East the conclusions of the IPC analysis and precipitation trends during the months from October to March, to allow the implementation of a strategy adapted to start-up and during the growing season (drought-resilient seeds, choice of plots and crop types, prepositioning stock for off-season farming, prepositioning phytosanitary products to prevent attacks of crops during rainy periods ...);
• In view of the considerable reduction in food production in the 2016-17 crop year compared with the averages of the last 5 years, Prioritize and continue emergency activities for Phase 3 and 4 populations in pockets of nutritional food;
• Restoring and strengthening livelihoods and / or assets: integrated action food security and livelihoods (protection of seeds, enhancement of improved varieties with a short cycle, adapted to agro-ecological conditions), social transfers;
• Given the low area cultivated, popularize innovative techniques to allow a better agricultural yield and revive high value-added cash crops (extension of the basket compost facility, improved seed);
• Implement productive safety net projects including the construction or rehabilitation of assets of Community interest (water storage and distribution infrastructures for domestic and agricultural use, livestock watering troughs, rural feeder roads, etc.) to support activities aimed at diversifying the sources of income of households and the community;
• With a view to diversifying income and food sources, support fishing and short-cycle farming activities (staffing of material) and capacity building for conservation and processing (drying and fresh storage / community / energy solar) and the flow of products;
• More effectively coordinate multi-sectoral recovery and development activities for better integration and synergism, to create a leverage effect on the Community and regional economy;
• Put in place sustainable water management and management systems for agriculture as well as for human consumption and animal;
• Strengthen watershed protection activities for the Great South East and dune fixation for the Great South (reforestation, agroforestry, ...);
• Strengthen and scale up mechanisms / mechanisms for price monitoring, food availability, agrometeorological information, and monitoring the evolution of the food, nutrition and health situation that forms the basis of the alert system early;
• Conduct a chronic IPC analysis to highlight the real impact of cyclical shocks in the prevailing situation of precariousness in the analysis areas

Specific recommendations for the Great South:

• Accelerate the implementation of the early warning system that would limit the deterioration of the situation during the difficult period by promoting informed and early decision-making and the implementation of palliative and recovery activities;
• Conduct a lessons learned exercise on humanitarian interventions and update the drought contingency plan to improve coordination of both humanitarian and recovery interventions
• Put in place an appropriate system for nutritional monitoring of children during the 2018 lean season and strengthen the program support for the acute malnutrition management program in terms of coverage;
• Explore the possibility of decentralizing the ambulatory management of SAM at the community level to improve access and the use of services by malnourished children