Acute food insecurity remains concerning in Madagascar—concentrated in the southern and eastern regions. Around 2.12 million people (7 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between June and September 2026, including over 183,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.94 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is an overall decrease from 2.57 million people who faced Phase 3 or above between March and May 2026, as a result of partial post‑harvest improvements. The situation in the Grand South, however, is much worse than the previous period as the population experiencing Phase 4 rose sharply, from 25,000 people between March and May 2026 to 183,000 people in the June–September 2026 first projection period.

In the second projection period (October 2026–February 2027), conditions are expected to deteriorate dramatically, with around 3.72 million people projected to face Phase 3 or above, including nearly 426,000 people who will likely face Phase 4. This deterioration will be driven by the lean season, depletion of stocks, increased market dependence, high prices, the delayed effects of cyclones, and unfavourable climate risks linked to El Niño, aggravated by insufficient coverage of assistance. 

Provide humanitarian assistance: Provide direct food assistance or cash transfers to severely food insecure households, particularly the poorest, to reduce food consumption gaps, limit negative coping strategies such as debt, asset sales, livestock destocking, or forced migration.

Strengthen resilience: Protect households’ ability to produce, purchase, and access food. Provide agricultural and pastoral support and support poor households’ incomes through cash‑for‑work, cash transfers, small‑business support, revival of artisanal fishing, small‑livestock recapitalisation, and income‑generating activities. Rehabilitate damaged rural infrastructure before or during the rainy season.

Prevent deterioration in vulnerable districts: Districts in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) but prone to deterioration must receive preventive food assistance, price‑adjusted cash transfers, agricultural recovery, market support, access rehabilitation, nutrition strengthening, and close monitoring of prices, nutrition admissions, and morbidity. Preparedness measures should be initiated in all districts exposed to potential El Niño effects.

Prevent collapse of assistance coverage: The projected decline in assistance coverage is a major risk. Rapidly secure additional and flexible funding to maintain life‑saving interventions in priority districts. Funding must simultaneously cover food assistance, cash transfers, livelihood protection, logistics, pre‑positioning, and monitoring.