Madagascar: Acute Food Insecurity Situation November - December 2021 and Projections for January - April 2022 and May - August 2022
1.64 million people in Grand South and East of Madagascar highly food insecure; 309,000 children likely suffering from acute malnutrition
01.11.2021 > 31.08.2022


& next steps


DISCLAIMER: Please note that this IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was integrated with an IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis.

Food security:

Despite ongoing interventions, food insecurity in Madagascar’s Grand South and Grand South-East remains high, with 1.64 million people classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4), corresponding to 37% of the population analysed. The persisting food and nutrition crisis is exacerbated by prolonged drought, insecurity and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The most-affected districts, classified in Emergency, include Amboasary Atsimo, Ambovombe Androy, Ampanihy and Tsihombe, hosting nearly 300,000 people among the 400,000 people in these conditions. Humanitarian food assistance has provided broad coverage in terms of the number of beneficiaries over the past few months, thus averting a catastrophic situation. Nevertheless, this assistance remains insufficient to meet all kilocaloric needs and to sustainably address household consumption deficits, leaving people in continuous need of urgent action.

During the lean season (January to April 2022), due to the expected increase in rations provided by humanitarian food assistance, especially in the Grand South, a slight decrease in the number of people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) is expected, while that in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) will likely remain similar. Thus, around 334,000 people (8% of the population analysed) are estimated to remain in IPC Phase 4 and around 1.3 million people (30% of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3, adding up to around 1.64 million people in IPC Phases 3 or 4. However, the districts of Amboasary Atsimo, Ambovombe Androy and Ampanihy West will likely remain classified in IPC Phase 4.

A significant improvement in food security is expected during the second projection period (May to August 2022), the harvest period, with meteorological forecasts predicting normal or above-average rainfall that is favourable for crop production. The districts of Betioky, Betroka, Tulear II and Taolagnaro will likely shift to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). In this period, for which levels of assistance have yet to be determined, approximately 1.1 million people will be in high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or 4), corresponding to 25% of the population analysed. Around 182,000 people (4% of the population analysed) are estimated to remain in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 912,000 (21% of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).


The latest Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis shows that around 309,000 children in Madagascar’s Grand South are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition through August 2022. This includes nearly 60,000 expected cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). Although still critical, compared to the previous analysis (June 2021), there is a significant improvement in the nutritional situation, with several districts moving from IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) or 3 (Serious) to IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert) between November and December 2021. This is mainly related to prevention actions, particularly the effects of humanitarian food assistance, which has prioritised communes with Serious and Critical levels of acute malnutrition, as well as all those at risk of malnutrition, such as households with malnourished children and pregnant and lactating women. The nutritional situation could however worsen during the first projection period, which is the lean season (January to April 2022), with seven districts likely in IPC AMN Phase 3. A seasonal improvement is then expected during the second projection period (May to August 2022), except for in Amboasary Atsimo, which will likely remain in IPC AMN Phase 3.

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