Southern and eastern Madagascar continue to face persistently high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), driven by a combination of factors, including significant climatic shocks and the impacts of the recent socio-political crisis, compounded by a reduction in humanitarian assistance.

In the current period (December 2025–January 2026), more than 1.57 million people are estimated to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, including approximately 84,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.49 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This represents a deterioration compared to the situation originally projected in the July 2025 analysis. Populations in the greater south and greater southeast, as well as in the Atsimo Andrefana and Anosy regions, are particularly affected by these conditions.

For the projection period (February–April 2026), the overall trend points towards a further deterioration of the food security situation, with an estimated 1.8 million people likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes nearly 71,000 people expected to be in IPC Phase 4 and 1.73 million people projected to be in IPC Phase 3. This deterioration is in line with projections for the greater southeast area, where all analysed districts are expected to remain in Phase 3, driven by the combined effects of cyclone and flood risks, access constraints, and sustained health pressures. The most affected districts are projected to include Amboasary Atsimo (Anosy), Ampanihy (Atsimo Andrefana), and Mahanoro, Vatomandry and Maroantsetra.

Provide humanitarian assistance: Provide integrated intervention packages combining food assistance or cash transfers with malnutrition-prevention activities and protection measures. The choice between cash and in-kind food should take into account how well markets are functioning, how easily households can access them, and the risk of communities becoming isolated.

Strengthen nutrition, health and WASH support: Nutrition, health, and WASH services need to be reinforced ahead of the rainy season and potential cyclonic shocks. This includes expanding screening activities, ensuring continuity of mobile and advanced malnutrition-management services, promoting appropriate infant and young child feeding in emergencies, and guaranteeing access to essential basic services.

Protect livelihoods and reduce access constraints: Livelihoods—including agriculture, livestock farming, fishing, and cash-crop production—should be protected through targeted support such as inputs, services, and assistance for income-generating activities. Measures to reduce losses should be adapted to the local climate and pest-risk conditions.

Prepare for climactic hazards and lean periods: Prepare for cyclones and floods in districts at high risk in order to activate timely, proportionate responses and prevent worsening conditions.

CUA specific recommendations: Reduce negative coping strategies, protect the most affected households and strengthen urban resilience to recurrent shocks. This requires Cash‑for‑Work programmes and pre‑positioning food and non‑food supplies to shorten response times and prevent a further deterioration of acute food insecurity during cyclones or periods of extreme rainfall.