The acute food insecurity situation in Madagascar remains deeply concerning. Approximately 1.2 million people—representing 13 percent of the population in the districts analysed—are currently experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 29,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.17 million in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

Conditions are expected to deteriorate during the first projection period (October 2025 to January 2026), with 1.5 million people projected to face Phase 3 or above, including a sharp increase of 84,000 people in Phase 4. This deterioration is primarily driven by an early lean season, resulting in poor harvests and elevated food prices, which undermine both availability and accessibility of food.

A further decline is anticipated in the second projection period (February to April 2026), with nearly 1.64 million people expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity, including 110,000 people in Phase 4 (Emergency). Alarmingly, marginalised and low-income rural households are disproportionately affected, with 5 to 10 percent of the population in some areas projected to be in Phase 4, even during the peak harvest season.

This worsening crisis is driven by a combination of recurring climate shocks (including droughts, floods, and cyclones), major agricultural disruptions (such as delayed planting and locust infestations), declining purchasing power, and limited access to essential services and humanitarian assistance. These factors are compounded by chronic poverty and fragile community resilience, placing millions at heightened risk.

• Provide humanitarian assistance: Provide direct food assistance or cash transfers to severely food-insecure households, particularly the poorest, to reduce food consumption deficits, prevent the sale of productive assets, and mitigate vulnerability during the lean season.
• Enhance nutritional support for children and pregnant women: Strengthen preventive measures against malnutrition in children under the age of five and pregnant and breastfeeding women. Reduce the risk of epidemics (malaria, cholera) by distributing mosquito nets, WASH kits, and disinfecting water points.
• Strengthen resilience: Increase the amount of cash transfers, taking into account persistent inflation and recent results on the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB). Preposition food supplies in areas prone to flooding and cyclones, which are often difficult to access during the rainy season. Provide improved short-cycle seeds in time for the normal rains forecast at the start of the growing season.
• Enhance pest monitoring systems: Continue survey and control operations against locust outbreaks, promptly treating first-generation larvae as soon as they appear.